The Chief Executive Officer of the Nigeria Economic Summit Group, Dr Tayo Aduloju, has stated that the guarantee to achieve crude oil production target of 2.2 million barrels per day will heavily depend on political stability in Rivers State.

Aduloju made this known over the weekend during an interactive session with the media following the launch of the NESG Private Sector Outlook 2025 Report.

On March 18, 2025, President Bola Tinubu declared a state of emergency in Rivers State, citing escalating political instability and attacks on vital oil installations.

The decision led to the suspension of Governor Sim Fubara, his deputy, and the state’s House of Assembly for six months.

The president appointed retired Vice Admiral Ibok-Ete Ekwe Ibas as interim administrator, emphasising that the move was necessary to protect critical petroleum assets and ensure national stability.

While speaking on the country’s oil production outlook, he noted that disruptions in the oil-rich state could significantly affect national output.

Aduloju said, “Whether you like it or not, if your top earner is oil and oil struggles, we will feel it. Anyone who has followed Nigeria’s oil production over the years will understand that what happens in Rivers State quickly reflects in the numbers.

“There is some correlation between the stability of Rivers and oil production, and I think it has to do with where some of those assets are located. You will notice that the state of emergency declaration was triggered on the basis of an attack on the petroleum assets.”

He said the recent political tensions in Rivers State pose a serious threat to crude oil production.

“If we want to keep crude oil production at 2.2mbpd, which is the budget target, we must achieve political stability in Rivers. So, without prejudice to any of the actors, all interventions to create real political stability in the state have to be encouraged by all. Because you do need to be hitting your 2.2mbpd no matter what the price of crude is for your budget to even look realistic,” he added.