Against the backdrop of great expectations from the forthcoming N54.9 trillion Federal Government Budget 2025,  the recent reversal of its scheduled passage on February 13, 2025 by the National Assembly did not go down well with not a few Nigerians who saw it as one slip too far, after belly aching over the already two months delay of the exercise. 

To these Nigerians, that the Federal Government’s 2025 budget – which by law should have been passed by the National Assembly, assented to by President Bola Tinubu and become operationalized on or before December 31, 2024, is still in the legislative mill is discomfiting enough. So when its passage by the two chambers of the National Assembly on February 13, 2025 was stalled on the basis of the need for some last minute adjustments, it was with misgivings they took it. The adjustment to be effected were according to the National Assembly necessary to correct some allocations and featured a draw down from the capital to the recurrent vote. 

However, whatever negative impact the delay in the passage of the budget may translate into, pales into back burner status when compared to the welter of hurdles that await the implementation of the fiscal package along the progressing year, and may dampen its expected positive outcomes. For beyond the slight ding-dong swing by the budget passage, lies a complement of implications which will determine its fortunes as the fiscal plan for the country in 2025 with ripple effects for the foreseeable future.  

Already, its two month lateness has launched the country’s business terrain into a mismatch with the global annual business cycle which runs from January to December. Given that it takes a minimum of two months for the ripples of any national budget in Nigeria to permeate the labyrinthine course comprising the legislative mill and the presidential assent processes into the business terrain, it stands to reason that the fuller impact of Budget 2025 may manifest optimally as from April this year. This is the downside of late budgets for the country which policy makers need to address their minds to all the time.  

However, while the lateness of the budget will have its effect, its overall run is yet to inspire expectations of spectacular implementation outcomes  given some systemic factors which are marshalled here in no particular order. These factors had played deleterious roles with previous budgets under past administrations, including the earlier budgets by the current Bola Tinubu administration. And there seems to be no reason to expect less nuisance value from them – especially as the current administration has yet to identify and initiate antidotes for such. 

Incidentally, a glimmer of hope in the country exists with the improving situation in the energy sector where the arrival of the Dangote Refinery – along with part rehabilitated Port Harcourt refinery and other modular refining facilities have come on stream to bring the price of petroleum products down progressively as the price of such were always among factors that determine the cost of living across the country.  However, the lowering of prices of petroleum products notwithstanding, the systemic factors still lie in ambush for the 2025 budget and its intendments. Coming top among these factors is the ‘Deep State’ in the country’s amorphous and humongous government as well as political caucuses and circles. 

These are the networks of faceless individuals informally in the workings of government and who nevertheless influence the enterprise of governance, as defined by their personal idiosyncrasies and interests which often run in conflict with the general welfare of the masses. They are the powers behind the respective thrones in state government houses and the presidency itself where they scramble for the most juicy of contracts and favours from the incumbent potentates, and deploy such dividends not necessarily for the good of the wider society, but for parochial benefits just to service their private interests and feather their nests.

Courtesy of the Deep State in the run of governance in this country, hardly has any annual budget – past or present, performed beyond 50 percent of its stated objectives.  In fact, in comparison to budgets before the Tinubu administration, the performance by the 2024  budget of 24 percent and 43 percent respectively for capital and recurrent votes respectively, so far offers the prospect that a more encouraging run may be in for the country’s fiscal terrain. 

Yet, another factor that may impede the success of Budget 2025 is the growing fixation of the leading lights of the Tinubu administration with the politics of 2027. Just as it is an established practice for politicians to always think of the next election, so the leading lights of the administration are jostling for continued hold on to power, especially as opponents are equally busy to wrestle same from them. 

However, just as it may be imperative for the administration to keep more than a watching brief on the futuristic politics of 2027, it is also true that the performance of the current 2025 budget may also count with voters when the polls come.