The BJP, as a party, has been changing and changing very fast. If evaluated properly, the changes taking place within the party are essentially part of its evolution. Starting with a disastrous beginning, winning just two seats in the 1984 Lok Sabha elections, the party reached its zenith with a victory of 303 seats in the 2019 elections.

Viewed in this context, the 2024 outcome, where the party won only 240 seats and managed to form the government with the support of its regional allies, was a significant setback. However, instead of being disheartened, the BJP worked extra hard with renewed determination, resulting in a series of victories in state elections. While it secured victories on its own in Odisha, Haryana, and Delhi, it also delivered its best-ever electoral performance in Maharashtra and formed the government with its allies.

The party has now set its sights on poll-bound Bihar, where its political stock has been rising gradually, albeit slowly. Bihar is scheduled to elect its new Legislative Assembly in October-November this year.

The BJP is known as a party that works with a long-term vision and is not averse to making subtle adjustments to its core pro-Hindu ideology if it helps expand its base. When it broke away from the Janata Party and came into existence in 1981, it was treated as an untouchable party due to its commitment to hardcore Hindu ideology when secularism was the buzzword in Indian politics. It found acceptance with two regional parties that themselves had deep religious moorings – the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra and the Shiromani Akali Dal in Punjab.

It is a tribute to the BJP’s resilience that its existing allies include parties like the Janata Dal-United (JD-U) and the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), who fancy themselves as secular parties. To achieve this, the BJP never abandoned the ideologies it stood for. Many of these have either been achieved or are being implemented without major objections from its secular allies.

To achieve this, the BJP successfully redefined secularism. It accused its arch-rival, the Congress party, of indulging in Muslim appeasement politics and labelled the Congress and some of its allies as “pseudo-secular.”

However, its blow-hot-blow-cold relationship with the JD-U in Bihar is a case in point. JD-U leader Nitish Kumar dumped the BJP as his ally and joined hands with the Opposition to form a government to safeguard his Muslim vote bank the moment it became clear that the then Gujarat chief minister, Narendra Modi, who carried the image of a firebrand Hindu leader at the time, would be the BJP’s prime ministerial face for the 2014 Lok Sabha polls.

Today, the same Nitish Kumar finds himself virtually trapped in the BJP’s net, with no visible escape route. It is a known fact that Bihar’s longest-serving chief minister is politically past his prime, and his popularity is declining by the day.

The BJP has cast its net in such a subtle manner that Nitish Kumar may not even feel it. A past master at double-speak during its formative years, the BJP has announced that the BJP-led NDA would contest the upcoming Bihar elections under Nitish Kumar’s leadership. This was in response to Nitish Kumar’s son, Nishant Kumar, demanding that the NDA name his father as its chief ministerial face. After remaining apolitical for years, Nishant has suddenly become politically active, indicating that Nitish Kumar is not keeping well and intends to use the 2025 elections to promote his son as his political successor.

Despite his declining health and popularity, the BJP still needs Nitish Kumar as it eyes the post-Nitish Kumar JD-U for further expansion in Bihar. The BJP has cleverly stated that it will contest under Nitish Kumar’s leadership without committing to his continuation as chief minister if the NDA retains power. There are suggestions that the BJP might have played a role in Nishant Kumar’s sudden political activity. The party may have promised him a significant role, possibly as deputy chief minister or a position at the Centre, if the JD-U does not push for Nitish as chief minister.

In the 2020 elections itself, it became clear that while the public mood was in the BJP’s favour, Nitish Kumar no longer held the same sway over voters as he did in the past. The JD-U fielded candidates on 115 seats but won only 43, while the BJP contested 110 seats and won 74. BJP now intends to reverse the role and become the big brother in the alliance by contesting more seats than the JD-U.

The BJP’s new strategy for states now appears to be not letting regional allies dominate. Instead, it aims to use them for its growth in territories where it had little or no presence. The Bihar upcoming elections have emerged as crucial in the BJP’s scheme of things, as the party is well aware that the Congress party’s over-reliance on regional allies was one of the reasons for its decline as a national force. It is a fate the BJP wants to avoid, even if it means some regional parties walking away from the alliance and contesting against it.

Ajay Jha is a senior journalist, author and political commentator