As a Union Territory, the upcoming Delhi Legislative Assembly elections should not generate more excitement than those held in two other Union Territories with legislative assemblies – Jammu and Kashmir and Puducherry. However, the Delhi elections have the potential to become a turning point in contemporary Indian politics, especially for the Opposition. 

Even before the Election Commission formally announced that the Delhi elections would be held on February 5, fissures within the Opposition camp had started becoming visible. The announcement of the poll schedule merely hastened a process that had already been set in motion by the likes of Mamata Banerjee and Arvind Kejriwal, the leaders of the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), respectively. AAP had already declared that post-Delhi polls, it would try to restructure the opposition alliance, leaving out the Congress party, India’s principal opposition party. 

Just a few months ago, the two parties had been allies, contesting the 2024 Lok Sabha elections together for the seven Delhi seats, with the AAP fielding candidates for four and the Congress contesting the remaining three. The alliance, however, failed spectacularly, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) sweeping all seven Delhi Lok Sabha seats for the third time in a row. 

Now, the Delhi assembly elections are witnessing a bitter battle between the two parties, with both sides indulging in name-calling and washing their dirty linen in public. As a result, the INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance) Bloc is on the verge of collapsing. The TMC and Uttar Pradesh’s erstwhile ruling Samajwadi Party, both members of the INDIA Bloc, have announced their support for AAP, excluding the Congress party. Regardless of the outcome when the results are declared on February 8, it is becoming clear that many parties within the INDIA Bloc are using the Delhi elections as an opportunity to make it evident that they are not ready to work under the leadership of the Congress party, especially its face, Rahul Gandhi, the incumbent Leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha. 

The Congress party became inconsequential in Delhi after failing to secure any seat in the past three Lok Sabha elections, as well as in the 2015 and 2020 assembly elections. The contest now primarily involves the BJP versus the rest, which includes AAP, which has secured back-to-back one-sided victories, winning 67 and 62 seats in the 70-member Delhi Assembly, and a resurgent Congress. Congress, however, is merely attempting to spice up the contest by turning the Delhi elections into a triangular fight. 

This development poses a challenge for AAP, as Congress could syphon off some of the votes that, not long ago, belonged to it. This situation has also given the BJP a glimmer of hope that it might return to power in Delhi after a long hiatus. The BJP ruled Delhi between 1993 and 1998, but since then, it has struggled with the Congress and AAP forming governments thrice each. A wary AAP has already begun speculating about the possibility of Congress forging a tactical understanding with the BJP to oust it from power in the city-state. 

The INDIA alliance was largely a knee-jerk reaction from the Opposition frustrated by the BJP’s firm grip on power at the centre. Aware that leadership would be the trickiest issue, the Opposition swept this crucial matter under the carpet, contesting elections with internal contradictions. The Congress and the TMC were at odds in the TMC-ruled West Bengal, and AAP and Congress were at loggerheads in AAP-ruled Punjab. The INDIA alliance achieved only moderate success, with the BJP's seat count dropping from 303 to 240, but it was not enough to unseat the BJP from power. The Congress was the biggest beneficiary, as it added 47 seats, securing 99 seats and enabling Rahul Gandhi to become the Leader of Opposition. But that was the extent of it. Other constituents of the INDIA Bloc soon realised that the Congress party was using them to increase its strength, sowing the seeds of discontent and scepticism, which are now on full display in the Delhi elections. 

This assessment does seem to have some merit. Although it has not been formally announced as party policy, it appears that Congress is gearing up to reclaim lost ground in several states. One of the primary reasons for Congress’ decline in national politics was its flawed policy of aligning with regional parties and becoming their subsidiary in key states, all in a bid to prevent the BJP from coming to power at the Centre. It formed alliances with parties like the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh, Rashtriya Janata Dal in Bihar, the TMC and later the Left Front in West Bengal, and the Nationalist Congress Party in Maharashtra. 

This policy, initiated during the tenure of PV Narasimha Rao between 1991 and 1996, when he served as both Prime Minister and the Congress president, and later pursued vigorously during Sonia Gandhi’s long presidency, the longest in the history of the Grand Old Party, yielded short-term gains but ultimately became the party’s undoing. Over time, the Congress vacated the opposition's space in key states, which the BJP eagerly occupied, enabling it to expand and strengthen its base, particularly in regions where it had previously struggled. This shift ultimately allowed the BJP to emerge as India’s leading political party. 

The Opposition has always attempted to unite for national elections. Earlier, the focus was on a Third Front that excluded the Congress and the BJP. The BJP’s rise as a formidable force meant that the Congress had to be included in such an alliance, which was then renamed the United Progressive Alliance (UPA). However, with the BJP continuing to hold strong at the Centre, the UPA gave way to a larger, more ambitious INDIA Bloc in 2024. Now, the very existence of the INDIA Bloc is in jeopardy, as its members seem reluctant to accept Rahul Gandhi as their leader.

Unless the Congress party agrees to withdraw Rahul Gandhi as its prime ministerial candidate, a move that seems unlikely under the current circumstances, the INDIA Bloc may soon become history, giving way to a revival of the now-defunct Third Front, an alliance of regional parties for national elections. Such a realignment could happen since these parties generally do not come face-to-face with each other in their respective states. 

Ajay Jha is a senior journalist, author and political commentator