Is the INDI Alliance Heading the UPA2 Way? The cracks in the INDI Alliance evoke memories of UPA2, marked by contradictions and missteps that ultimately spelled its downfall. In 2012, Mamata Banerjee walked out of the coalition, citing opposition to FDI in multi-brand retail, increased diesel prices, and irreconcilable differences with the Congress. Her exit underscored the fragility of a coalition riddled with conflicting ideologies, a reality that persisted until 2014. UPA2’s tenure is often remembered as one of the most corruption-ridden in India’s history, paving the way for the BJP’s resurgence and the meteoric rise of Narendra Modi, then Chief Minister of Gujarat, to the Prime Minister's office.

Against this backdrop, Mamata Banerjee cemented her political dominance by dethroning the Left in West Bengal, ending their three-decade rule. Her victory in 2011 and subsequent electoral successes, including her fourth term as Chief Minister in 2024, highlighted her ability to mobilize regional support. However, the political landscape has shifted. Banerjee’s ambitions have expanded beyond West Bengal as she eyes a pivotal role on the national stage. Her push for the chairmanship of the INDI Alliance—amid growing dissent within the coalition—has raised eyebrows.

Mamata's Calculated Moves:

Banerjee's recent proposal to elevate Mallikarjun Kharge, Congress President, as chairperson of the alliance appears to be a strategic move to thwart Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. Kumar, who spent a year stitching together the coalition, was considered a frontrunner for the role. Banerjee’s manoeuvre has found tacit support from Akhilesh Yadav, Arvind Kejriwal, and even Jagan Mohan Reddy of the YSR Congress Party. However, the most significant blow came from Lalu Prasad Yadav, a staunch ally of the Gandhi family, whose wavering loyalty signals deeper fissures within the alliance.

These developments provide a silver lining for the BJP, which suffered a humiliating defeat in the 2024 general elections, falling short of the 240-seat mark. The alliance’s joint vote strength had thwarted BJP’s ambition to cross 300 seats, but the emerging cracks suggest that its unity may be short-lived.

The BJP's Advantage:

Mamata Banerjee's appeal remains largely confined to West Bengal, limiting her influence in the Hindi heartland, where the Congress retains a broader pan-India footprint. A divided opposition would only fragment votes, benefiting the BJP in 2029. The BJP’s recent gains in Maharashtra and Haryana have further weakened the alliance, delivering what could be the final blows to Congress’s leadership within the coalition.

The upcoming assembly polls in Delhi and Bihar will serve as critical tests for the Congress. The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), a key ally in Bihar, may reconsider its alliance with the Congress depending on the political climate. Meanwhile, Kejriwal’s AAP has already declared its intent to contest solo in Delhi, further eroding the alliance’s cohesion. AAP’s decision to field candidates in Haryana’s 2024 elections—where it won less than 2% of the vote—has only deepened the rift. Kejriwal’s accusations of Congress’s overconfidence during seat-sharing talks underline the lack of trust and coordination within the alliance.

Lessons for the INDI Alliance:

The alliance’s inability to sustain momentum from the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, particularly its failure to amplify campaign issues like opposition to Savarkar’s legacy, has proven costly. The Congress’s diminishing bargaining power and the growing discontent among allies could lead to the alliance’s disintegration unless corrective measures are taken promptly.

For the Congress and the INDI Alliance to remain relevant, they must address internal contradictions, foster greater unity, and refine their electoral strategies. Otherwise, the BJP, waiting in the wings, will capitalize on the opposition's discord and consolidate its position for 2029.

Amid the growing rift amongst the partners of the alliance, Mamata Banerjee, the firebrand leader of the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and Chief Minister of West Bengal, is increasingly positioning herself as a central figure in the opposition's INDIA bloc. Known for her unrelenting opposition to the BJP, Mamata's aspiration to lead the coalition has both invigorated and complicated the bloc's dynamics. Her political clout, coupled with her determination, has drawn attention to her potential as a unifying leader. However, her ambitions raise questions about the cohesion of the alliance and the future strategy of Congress and other partners.

Mamata's Aspirations:

Mamata Banerjee has consistently showcased her ability to challenge the BJP. Her decisive victory in the 2021 West Bengal Assembly elections was a watershed moment that cemented her stature as a formidable force against the BJP juggernaut. Her leadership style—marked by grassroots mobilization, strong anti-BJP rhetoric, and an image of a regional leader with national appeal—has fueled speculation about her ambitions to head the INDIA bloc.

By projecting herself as a viable face against Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Mamata aims to consolidate regional satraps under her leadership. Her recent overtures to leaders like Nitish Kumar, Arvind Kejriwal, and Uddhav Thackeray reflect her intent to strengthen her foothold in the alliance while maintaining an edge over Congress.

Impact on Congress:

Mamata's ambitions pose a significant challenge to Congress, traditionally the pivot of opposition alliances. Despite Rahul Gandhi’s renewed vigor following the Bharat Jodo Yatra, Congress struggles to assert dominance within the INDIA bloc. Mamata’s rising stature could further erode Congress’s influence, particularly in states where regional parties have eclipsed it.

In states like West Bengal and Kerala, where Congress faces direct competition from the TMC and the Left, Mamata’s leadership aspirations might intensify the rivalry. Moreover, her insistence on a leadership role could create friction over seat-sharing agreements, particularly in states where both Congress and TMC vie for the anti-BJP vote.

Congress, however, retains a pan-India presence and remains the largest opposition party in terms of parliamentary strength. Its role in unifying regional parties under the INDIA banner is crucial, but Mamata’s ambitions could compel it to recalibrate its strategy, potentially leading to internal dissent and strained relations with allies.

Challenges for INDIA Bloc:

The INDIA bloc, a coalition of ideologically diverse parties, faces the Herculean task of maintaining unity amid competing interests. Mamata’s assertive push for leadership underscores the broader challenge of balancing regional aspirations with collective goals. Leadership Dilemma: Mamata’s bid to lead the bloc might alienate other regional leaders like Nitish Kumar, Akhilesh Yadav, and Arvind Kejriwal, who harbour their ambitions. The absence of a consensus candidate for Prime Minister could exacerbate tensions within the alliance.

Seat-Sharing Complications:

Resolving seat-sharing agreements among 26 parties will be a litmus test for the bloc’s unity. In states like West Bengal, Punjab, and Delhi, where regional parties dominate, negotiations with Congress could become contentious.

Ideological Cohesion: The bloc encompasses parties with divergent ideologies, from the Left to centrists. Balancing these differences while crafting a cohesive narrative against the BJP will require strategic finesse.

Resource Mobilization:

The INDIA bloc faces an uphill battle against the BJP’s well-oiled election machinery. Raising funds, managing campaigns, and countering BJP’s extensive reach pose significant challenges.

Public Perception: The bloc must convince voters of its ability to provide a stable alternative to the BJP. Infighting, leadership tussles, and contradictory statements could undermine its credibility.

Fallout of Mamata’s Ambitions:

Mamata’s assertive push could lead to both positive and negative outcomes for the INDIA bloc. On one hand, her dynamism and ability to rally regional leaders might bolster the alliance’s strength. On the other, her overt ambitions risk alienating key allies and fragmenting opposition unity.

Positive Outcomes; Stronger Regional Leadership:

Mamata’s leadership could galvanize regional parties, giving them a more assertive voice within the bloc. Focus on Anti-BJP Agenda: Her leadership style could bring sharper focus to the bloc’s anti-BJP narrative, particularly in states where regional parties wield significant influence.

Negative Consequences; Erosion of Unity:

Mamata’s leadership bid might trigger resistance from other leaders, weakening the bloc’s cohesion. Congress’s Retaliation: A side-lined Congress might adopt a more confrontational stance, potentially leading to fragmented opposition strategies in key states.

The Road Ahead:

For the INDIA bloc to emerge as a credible alternative to the BJP, it must resolve the leadership issue with pragmatism and mutual respect. Mamata Banerjee, Congress, and other regional leaders need to prioritize collective goals over individual ambitions.

Key Strategies for Unity; Consensus Leadership:

Instead of projecting a single leader prematurely, the bloc should emphasize collective leadership, focusing on a unified agenda rather than personalities.

Clear Narrative: Crafting a cohesive narrative that resonates with voters across states is imperative. The focus should remain on governance issues, economic policies, and social justice. Strong Coordination Mechanism: Establishing a robust coordination committee to resolve disputes and streamline decision-making is essential.

Regional Sensitivities: The bloc must respect regional parties’ influence while ensuring a fair distribution of responsibilities and resources.

Public Outreach: Extensive campaigns to counter BJP’s narrative, highlight governance failures, and project a vision for India’s future will be critical.

Mamata Banerjee’s ambition to lead the INDIA bloc underscores her political acumen and determination. While her leadership could energize the alliance, it also risks exacerbating internal rifts. For Congress and its allies, navigating this complex dynamic will be a test of political maturity.

In final assessment, the road to ensuing assembly polls in Delhi and Bihar besides general elections in 2029 is fraught with challenges but also presents an opportunity for the opposition to redefine itself. Whether the INDIA bloc can rise above its contradictions to present a united front remains an open question? The INDIA bloc’s success hinges on its ability and political manoeuvring to present a united front, resolve leadership disputes, and craft a compelling narrative against the BJP.

(Writer is political Analyst and strategic affairs Columnist based in Shimla)