Nepal’s Prime Minister K P Sharma Oli is busy packing his bags and drawing up a wish list of all the things he wants from the resourceful northern neighbour ahead of his December 2-6 state visit to China. Oli, a Hindu Brahmin, deliberately chose Beijing as his first foreign destination after taking over the reins of the predominantly Hindu Himalayan country for the fourth time, to spite New Delhi. It’s crystal clear that he couldn’t resist the temptation to cock a snook at India which expects all newly elected heads of state in the neighbourhood to visit New Delhi to pledge their allegiance before heading off to other world capitals.

As India is not only the resident power and a nuclear power to boot, besides being the world’s most populated country, Oli’s decision to make Beijing his first port of call must be truly galling for the Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party government. All things considered, it’s a big rebuff by the world’s only other Hindu country. And mind you, India is about 22 times bigger than Nepal and claims to be the Vishwaguru but Oli doesn’t seem to care a damn.

By the way, I am really amazed by Oli’s capacity for needling the current dispensation in New Delhi. Before it was confirmed that Oli’s first bilateral visit in his fourth innings as PM would be to China and not to India, he likened China and India to the Sufi shrines in Ajmer and Nizamuddin in New Delhi. Speaking at the annual Kantipur Conclave in Kathmandu, evidently tongue firmly in cheek, Oli said that it shouldn’t matter which Sufi shrine a devotee visits first.

It’s worth noting that Oli didn’t equate China and India with Angkor Wat and Akshardham temples which are Hindu religious icons. Instead, he picked Sufi shrines, which essentially celebrate Islam and are considered to be instrumental in popularising Islam in India. If Oli’s analogy was a barb, which I suspect it was, India’s “Hindu First” government must be pretty cut up about the Nepali Brahmin’s blasphemy.

It seems that Oli knows too well what hurts our ruling Hindutvawadis the most. Not too long ago, the BJP-RSS couldn’t believe its ears when Oli, during his previous stint as PM, openly declared that Lord Ram was not born in Ayodhya but in Thoru in southern Nepal. In essence, Oli announced that Lord Ram is not Indian but Nepali. He accused India of manipulating history to appropriate what genuinely belongs to Nepal, to enhance its position culturally and otherwise.

Oli publicly argued that as King Dashrath was the ruler of Nepal, his son Ram was naturally born in Nepal and not in Ayodhya in India. A badly stung BJP had no option but to field its national spokesperson, Bizay Sonkar Shastri, to condemn Oli’s remarks and threaten him with divine retribution if he didn’t withdraw his claims. Oli, of course, stuck to his guns, leaving the BJP-RSS squirming.

Before I delve into the geo-political implications of Oli’s upcoming China visit, let me throw some more light on the bad blood between Oli and the Modi government. While Indian officials are usually circumspect and discreet as career diplomats ought to be regardless of provocations, India’s captive media has a history of targeting Oli to please the powers that be.

After Oli released a new political map of Nepal incorporating Lipulekh, Kalapani and Limpiyadhura — which India claims as its territory — he was portrayed in the Indian media as a sex-starved, lecherous old man to tarnish his reputation. An Indian television channel went to the extent of claiming that he had been honey-trapped by then China’s ambassador to Nepal, Hou Yanqi. Zee Hindustan channel claimed, without a shred of evidence, that Oli was in an illicit relationship with Yanqi, who was blackmailing him into doing whatever Beijing wanted. It called her a “Chinese spy” and a “poison maiden”. The tirade stopped only after the Nepal Cable TV Association threatened to ban Indian channels engaged in the PM’s character assassination to please New Delhi.

It is quite natural for our diplomatic-security establishment to closely monitor Oli’s upcoming China visit because what transpires during Oli’s meetings with his powerful host, President Xi Jinping, will directly impact India’s national interests. Notably, Oli passed the loyalty test well before boarding the flight to Beijing. Recently, he not only reiterated Nepal’s commitment to the “One China” policy but said very emphatically that no anti-China activities will be permitted during his premiership. It’s common for leaders of developing nations to take such vows of allegiance to China before flying to Beijing with a long or short wish list.

I think India’s best bet for keeping the pro-China Oli in check is the Nepali Congress, which is not aligned with Beijing and is known to be extremely mindful of India’s interests. In the bizarre world of Nepal’s coalition politics, Oli is totally dependent on the Nepali Congress for survival; if it withdraws support, Oli will lose the prime-ministership in no time.

Ahead of Oli’s China visit, the Nepali Congress has taken a very firm stand that Oli should not sign the Belt and Road Initiative execution framework treaty unless China agrees to fund the projects with cent per cent grants or soft loans with minimum interest and long payback period. But China says that it can’t be so generous and accommodating. Importantly, Oli is sold on the BRI idea and wants to go ahead on China’s terms.

New Delhi is against the execution of BRI projects in its backyard as they would inevitably tighten China’s grip on Nepal. It is therefore keenly watching whether Oli will overrule its biggest coalition partner and sign the BRI execution treaty, or plead with Beijing for more time to bring the Nepali Congress around. If the Nepali Congress somehow manages to stop Oli in his tracks and the treaty is shelved or even delayed, New Delhi will have good reason to rejoice.

The author is an independent, Pegasused reporter and commentator on foreign policy and domestic politics