India Ratings (Ind-Ra) warned that India's exports to the US could drop by USD 2-7 billion in FY26 if the US imposes reciprocal tariffs. India’s exports to the US rose 5.57% to USD 59.93 billion in FY25, while imports grew by 1.91%. Bilateral trade discussions and defense pacts may mitigate the impact, with GDP growth potentially declining by 5-10 basis points.