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IROKO and Kandoo Kid are both set to have their Grand National warm ups in the Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Newbury, 3.45), the former also entered to run at Kelso, but both will be racing over a trip short of their best and giving lumps of weight away all round and there are better each-way plays in the field of 16 that are set to run over their optimum distance.
Kotmask is still open to more improvement after being badly hampered early on at Ascot last time out, Scarface ahead of him, but needs the ground to dry out aplenty, while Saint Segal has a cracking record around the Berkshire track. But in the end I have fallen down on the side of the light weight TEDLEY who had his work cut out keeping tabs on L’Eau Du Sud over a bare two miles at Cheltenham.
He was also involved in that Ascot race splitting the above two horses, but crucially was keeping on best of the trio.
The Nigel Twiston-Davies charge will relish this step back up in trip and I suspect that 5lbs conditional Jamie Bruce will be asked to ride him out the back and make his run after negotiating the cross fence for the final time.
There are some valuable prizes on offer on the supporting card with SAM BROWN set to give weight and age away to seven rivals in the opening Veterans Handicap Chase over the best part of three and a quarter miles.
The now 13-year-old ran a cracker when a length and a quarter second to the rejuvenated Copperhead at Market Rasen before being outclassed behind Djelo and company in the Denman Chase here over the bare three mile trip.
Back in calmer waters here and a pound lower in the ratings, I think he can give the weight away to the likes of 10-year-old Credo and Gustavian. The former will relish the testing conditions having beaten the latter by four and a half lengths at Exeter and looks sure to make this a massive test of stamina from some way out.
ZERTAKT (2.30) may bring to an end the winning run of Jasmin De Grugy in receipt of 13lbs, while I will be having a lumpy each-way bet on BALBOA (4.15). The latter doesn’t have a very good strike rate (1-14) but is a solid each-way play having been placed on eight occasions, and there was certainly nothing wrong with his staying on third behind West To The Bridge last time out at Wetherby.
The ground will be a whole lot quicker at Doncaster for the feature Grimthorpe Handicap Chase (3.15), but such a valuable prize in a field of 14 is more than slightly disappointing.
UNDERSUPERVISION looks as though he has been building up to a seasonal best outing for this big staying event. The winner of this race in 2022 off a mark of 132 and second a year later off 132, the nine-year-old was then pulled up in last year’s edition when the deep ground would not have been his want.
Set to race off a rating of just 122 here and following a promising fourth at Ludlow last time out when he ran much better than his finishing position suggests, the selection looks a solid each-way play at a double figure price.
Of his rivals, I have the most respect for Lord Baddesley. Only one win from 12 in his chasing career (off 127), he has run some cracking races in some top handicaps since his best run probably being his second to Inch House at Newbury at the back end of 2023. He has rarely run over a trip this far, but providing that we get the forecast good ground, I suspect off a rating of 125 he could run a huge race from way off the pace.
Of the other races on the card, PATRIOTIK (3.55) is taken to make up for a moderate run at Ascot last time when he was badly outpaced. Back up to three miles, Isabel Williams looks sure to anchor him in rear and the long stretch home should suit him down to the ground.
There is a huge day of racing up at Kelso this afternoon and the Borders’ track has attracted some classy fields with 18 runners chasing a first prize of £61,000 in the Morebattle Hurdle at 3.30 over an extended two miles. But more than merely the prize today, there is a £100,000 bonus if the winner can then go on and win any race at the Cheltenham Festival.
The shrewd Emmet Mullins runs the hat-trick-seeking Vischio, but she has a 14lbs penalty to carry after flying clear of her rivals in the Paddy and Maureen Mullins Handicap Hurdle at Leopardstown.
There is a bundle of each-way value though further down the weights and the one I really like is FLORIDA DREAMS, who hasn’t really lived up to his early promise as a novice last year. The season started well with a smooth win at Hexham and then a fifth in the Greatwood Hurdle behind Burdett Road and company at Cheltenham.
Three runs since then have been massively underwhelming, but his last time out seventh in the Scottish County Hurdle can be upgraded. Making stealthy headway down the outside of the track from three out and set to challenge, he made a horrendous error at the second last which stopped him in his track, and thereafter Danny McMenamin was not hard on him and he eventually finished five and three quarter lengths off the winner. A pound lower mark of 125 looks very playable and he merits a strong each-way play here with the enhanced place terms.
The drying ground at the Borders’ track is going to be a big factor this afternoon and that weather forecast is hugely in the favour of GREY DAWNING over Iroko (also entered at Newbury) in the Premier Chase at 1.45 and FINGAL’S HILL (2.20).
The last named acts on soft ground, but is a better animal on a sound surface and is now set to run off a 6lbs mark than for his last win, having in the mean time been placed off 125, so his chance is quite obvious to see and he can leave behind his run last time out at Catterick when he simply didn’t see out the extended distance.