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FOLLOWING the dry, cold spell up and down the country, rain is set to sweep in from early Saturday morning and that could signal a big change to the going descriptions at all of this afternoon’s meetings.
Haydock Park is the track that could be affected the most and that is the reason I shall be having two bets in the Stayers Premier Handicap Hurdle at 2.30. This looks a really good strength in depth renewal of what is normally a cracking heat, and the betting shape of the race will be slightly lop sided with last week’s Cheltenham winner, Doyen Quest, set for a quick reappearance under just a 5lbs penalty.
He is obviously quite a bit better than that five lengths success over Gowel Road suggests as he made an almighty mistake on the first circuit and then had to pick his way through the pack late on off what was hardly a rip-roaring pace. However, he makes the market for my two selections, namely Irish raider BACKMERSACKME and the bottom weight PATRIOTIK.
The former has been earmarked for this race for some time and the weather forecast will be music to the ears of trainer Emmet Mullins and connections. Fit from an eyecatching recent run on the flat, he is unexposed over this trip and the more rain the better for this son of Getaway.
Patriotik is even more unexposed at three miles, having only visited the race track on six occasions, so I am hoping that inexperience won’t get the better of him midrace. He moved up stylishly turning for home in the Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle at Chepstow until outpaced as they straightened up before running on again late doors. This extra yardage is hugely in his favour and with enhanced each-way terms available with most bookmakers he could hit the frame at the very least at a huge price.
The big race of the day at the Merseyside track is the Grade One Chase at 3.05, and this looks a very average renewal with 10 set to go to post headed by last year’s mud-loving winner Royal Pagaille. Trainer Venetia Williams normally has the 10-year-old ready first time out and the more rain during the day, the better for this still relatively lightly raced individual.
The bay gelding saw off Bravemansgame to the tune of six-and-a-half lengths some 12 months ago and I don’t envisage a turnaround in the form here. The other soft ground dark horse is Gold Tweet, but all of his best form over fences has come up to two and three-quarter miles.
So the nod goes to LIMERICK LACE, and she is taken to become the first mare to win this mighty prize since its inauguration in 2005. An impressive winner of the Mares’ Chase at the Cheltenham Festival in March, she then travelled supremely well for most of the way in Grand National at Aintree despite being badly hampered at the Canal Turn first time around, and then making a mistake at the 27th which seemed to knock the stuffing out of her.
Still, to be beaten 30 lengths into 10th over a trip beyond her best was a cracking run and in receipt of 7lbs from the boys, she surely has to be a major player here if ready to roll the dice first time out.
There are plenty of other tough handicaps to get our teeth stuck into this afternoon and the concluding extended three-mile Best Odds on The Exchange Handicap Chase at 3.40 is one of those races. I was a bit disappointed to see Famous Bridge not declared for this 0-145 class two affair as I thought it was the perfect next step for him, especially with the deluge set to hit the course, but that could open up the way for MONBEG GENIUS to make a winning reappearance.
Jonjo’s charge was taken out of a recent engagement at Cheltenham due the unseasonably good going and should have underfoot conditions more to his liking here. I think that a handicap rating of 144 still underplays his talent and he may be good enough to give away 14lbs to My Silver Lining.
The extended two-mile hurdle can go to BEAT THE BAT (nap) (1.15) who is highly regarded by trainer Harry fry, while the Graduation Chase (1.50) looks well within the grasp of the promising TRELAWNE up against my long term Grand National selection Iroko.
Ascot are also expecting the heavens to open this afternoon and any give in the ground will surely suit the four-timer seeking bottom weight Art Decco at the foot of the handicap for the stamina sapping 3m5f Berkshire National. However, his record first time out isn’t exactly striking and BEAUPORT may be able to take this nice prize first time out.
He was hugely game when landing the Midlands’ National at Uttoxeter off a mark of 140 and then simply found the ground way too quick when subsequently pulled up in the Scottish National at Ayr. With his competent amateur taking 7lbs off his back here, the eight-year-old now finds himself back down to a rating of just 137 and must have strong claims if fit and ready to roll on his first start since April.
The Grade Two Ascot Hurdle (2.45) looks a good opportunity for COLONEL MUSTARD to land only his second win over timber, remarkably he has been placed on 12 other occasions on his 16 starts. Still lightly raced for a nine-year-old, he looks the value call here in receipt of six pounds from the penalised Blueking D’Oroux.
Of the other handicaps on the card, the mud loving FORTUNE LIGNA (12.55) has a big chance with Chad Bament taking a massive 10lbs off his back, while the concluding three mile handicap hurdle may go the way of RI NA CUIRTE (3.50).
Finally, on the level on the sand, MUMS TIPPLE can make up for a below par comeback at Kempton last time out by landing the big class two event at Wolverhampton at 6.55. The handicapper has given him a really good chance off 95 and he has a pearl of a draw in box number two, while NELSON GAY (Newcastle, 7.10) and URBAN ROAD (3.33) are worth noting at the Gosforth Park track.