Covid, semiconductor chip shortages, the cost of living crisis, the threat of fines for failing to sell electric cars when the demand is not there: any one of these feels like a once-in-a-decade shock, yet the fact that these events have all come on top of each other has removed any semblance of normality in the UK new car market.

It’s easy to get sucked into short-term challenges, but take a step back and it’s clear the UK market itself has changed dramatically since 2019 and is now much more competitive than ever.

New research from Auto Trader reveals that the 2.31 million new car sales in 2019 were split across 50 brands and 455 models. This year, the forecasted 1.98 million sales will be split across 56 brands and 486 models. The 1.0 million retail sales of 2019 will be 750,000 in 2024.

As Auto Trader’s research also shows, buyers are becoming increasingly disloyal, particularly when it comes to electric cars.

Historically, 36% of car buyers would stick with their current brand for their next car but for EVs it’s just 19%. A similar percentage already know they won’t buy from their current brand again. Tough crowd.

For now, many of the new entrants are not making much headway into the wider public consciousness. Auto Trader reports that advert views and leads to BYD, Great Wall and Omoda models haven’t risen at the same rate or as consistently as stock levels and availability of these brands’ cars. Auto Trader also says interest in them is reliant on spikes such as the news at the start of this year that BYD’s electrified models outsold Tesla in 2023.

Yet a levelling of the playing field is emerging as established car makers seem to be willingly giving up brand names with considerable equity as they launch EVs to replace or complement combustion-engined ones, and it is harming brand recognition.

While 84% of those surveyed associated a Focus with Ford, 74% a Golf with Volkswagen and 70% an A3 with Audi, the best-performing EV after the Megane E-Tech (60% brand recognition to Renault) was the Ioniq 5 (24% to Hyundai). Just 13% of people linked E-tron to Audi and 11% ID 3 to VW. The ‘new names’ strategy is not working for legacy car makers.

The pace of the change in the most popular models on Auto Trader’s new car listings has also laid bare just how fast-moving the EV market is. Just three of last year’s top 10 most popular models have stayed there in 2024, and only the Ioniq 5 and MG 4 survive from further back. This pace of change is only increasing and it’s likely that eight of next year’s top 10 haven’t been released yet.

So that’s more brands and more models competing for significantly fewer car sales from increasingly disloyal buyers attracted to the shiniest, newest thing. Who’d be in the business of selling cars?