Ukrainian troops now have more of an opportunity to strike back against Russia as Moscow has cut back on its ground offensives, the UK says.

According to the Ministry of Defence (MoD), Vladimir Putin’s army is now putting more pressure on Ukraine’s troops in Kursk, the Russian region which they seized in a surprise incursion last August, rather than the frontline in Ukraine.

In their latest social media update, British intelligence officials said: “Russian forces continue to conduct fewer offensive operations elsewhere on the frontline compared to late 2024 and early 2025.”

They added: “Opportunities for Ukrainian counteroffensives have been improved by the reduced number of ground offensives being carried out by Russia.”

The MoD noted that Russian logistics supply lines going into the Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk – which is Russia’s “primary operational focus” right now – have also been “degraded” by Ukrainian drones.

Ukrainian troops have manage to launch “a number of counterattacks” across that supply line.

It’s not entirely clear why Putin seems to have slowed down his offensives, but a senior consulting fellow to Chatham House’s Russia programme Keir Giles previously told HuffPost UK it could be down to “objective operational reasons” like the change in seasons.

The MoD also noted that Russia is applying more pressure to Ukraine’s hold in Kursk, although “Ukrainian forces likely maintain control of approximately 300 sq km of territory” in the area.

Experts have suggested there may be a correlation between Ukraine’s weakening grip on Kursk and the US’s decision to pause military aid and intel sharing with Ukraine in recent weeks.

It comes as Donald Trump continues to press for a quick end to the war, even if it means settling on terms more favourable to Moscow than to Kyiv.

The MoD noted over the weekend that Russia is also striking beyond the frontline and continuing to attack Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.

The British intelligence officials said Russia is looking to “exploit the winter period as it attempts to demoralise the civilian population as well as as weaken the Ukrainian economy”.

Russia is also deliberately using “lower-intensity strikes” this year to slowly replenish its precision guided munition, the officials said.

They added: “Rebuilding its stockpile enables [Long Range Aviation] to sit ready to conduct strikes such as these with little to no notice at a time of Russia’s choosing.”