The Russian public is paying an even higher price for Vladimir Putin’s ongoing war in Ukraine than previously predicted, UK officials say.

More than three years after the Russian president ordered his army to invade their European neighbours, it looks like the country’s inflation is set to soar yet again in 2025.

In its latest update on social media, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) said: “Inflationary pressures make it highly likely that Russia will spend more on defence than budgeted for in 2025.”

Reuters already reported last autumn that Putin planned to take defence spending to a post-Soviet high this year.

The MoD continued: “It is almost certain that inflation in Russia will be higher than the Central Bank of Russia target of 4% in 2024.”

The MoD previously claimed that the inflation rate – the measure of how prices change – for Russia last year was expected to be around 7.9%, while Ukraine’s was expected to be 5.8%.

Russia’s interest rates – the cost of borrowing – also shot up to 21% in January, while Ukraine’s crept up to 14.5%. For comparison, Britain’s was at 4.75%.

The MoD said this climbing inflation comes despite the Russian Central Bank’s  increasing interest rates from 7.5% in June 2023 to a staggering 21% in December last year.

And, to make matters even worse for Moscow, the MoD believes inflation is even higher than previously believed.

“The actual rate of inflation in 2024 was likely higher than the official reported figure,” the MoD added.

The officials added: “Pressures on businesses will almost certain increase if interest rates remained high in 2025.

“The vast majority of any corporate defaults will almost certainly occur in civilian industries, further increasing reliance on the military industrial complex to drive economic activity.”

However, these financial pressures are unlikely to stop Putin’s grinding offensive in Ukraine.

After three years of a united response from the west, the cracks are beginning to show between the US and Europe over Russia – an outcome Putin has long hoped for. 

In his haste to end the conflict by any means possible, Donald Trump has tried to push Ukraine to the negotiation table by pausing US military aid to Kyiv.

It comes after US president already expressed sympathy for Russia’s anti-Nato stance and falsely blamed Ukraine for starting the war, too.

European leaders – who have repeatedly pointed out that the conflict would instantly end if Putin just pulled his troops out of Ukraine – are now the main pillars of support for Kyiv.

They are scrambling to bolster the continent’s security defences amid fears a Trump peace deal will not actually deter Putin from future land grabs.