A far-right, pro-Putin candidate just secured the most votes in the first round of Romania’s presidential election.

It means the populist Călin Georgescu is in with a chance of becoming the new president of the eastern European country – and Romania’s support for Ukraine could therefore be in jeopardy.

Here’s what you need to know, and why it matters.

What just happened?

After 99.98% of the votes have been counted, it’s clear that the independent, far-right candidate has taken top spot in the first round of Romania’s presidential election.

Georgescu secured 22.9% of the vote. The centre-right Save Romania Union candidate, Elena Lasconi, came in second with 19.17% and incumbent pro-EU PM Marcel Ciolacu lagged behind on 19.15%.

It’s a huge shock as the pre-election polls showed the independent – who was not at all well-known beforehand – securing just 5% of the public vote while Ciolacu was expected to win.

It seems Georgescu’s social media campaign, which focused on the cost of living, managed to cut through.

It’s not 100% certain the populist will become the country’s next president when the runoff takes place on December 8.

But, if he does win, it could be a pivotal moment in European politics, especially after a three-year coalition between Romania’s two main parties.

The president in Romania is mainly ceremonial although they are the commander-in-chief of the military and attend both Nato and EU summits.

They also nominate the country’s PM after consultation with political parties.

Why does this matter for Nato and Ukraine? 

Ever since Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine, Romania has been offering military, humanitarian and economic support to its beleaguered neighbour, including the use of a Patriot air defence system.

Romania, which has a 400-mile border with Ukraine, offers a key transit route for Ukraine’s grain exports and plays a major role for Nato by hosting a military base for the alliance.

The country was expected to be part of Nato’s first line of defence if Putin ever extended his land grab beyond Ukraine, as many think he would like to – but now it’s not clear how a Georgescu presidency could respond to such aggression from Russia.

While the populist has not explicitly said he supports Russia after it invaded Ukraine, he has made it clear he opposes Nato and wants the war to end.

He was even kicked out of the right-wing AUR party for being too pro-Russia and anti-Nato in 2022. He has also hailed the country’s World War II-era fascist leader, Ion Antonescu, as a nationalist hero.

He described Putin as a “man who loves his country” in 2020 and declared Nato’s ballistic missile defence shield over Romania a “shame of diplomacy,” suggesting it would not protect Nato members from Moscow.

Georgescu also alluded to ending the war when he heard the election result, saying: “Tonight the Romanian people cried out for peace.”

That’s a stance US president-elect Donald Trump has also taken – sparking concerns he could pressure Kyiv to cede land to Russia just to end the conflict.

What does it mean for Europe?

This was the the largest shock in Romanian politics since the communist regime fell 35 years ago.

But Georgescu’s unexpected success is part of a wider swing towards the right among European states, with both Hungary and Slovakia putting controversial figures in power over the last couple of years.

Parallel situations have unfolded in Italy and France, too.

Romania’s parliamentary elections will also be held next week – and this result is expected to only strengthen support for the far-right.

What does Russia say?

The Kremlin played it cool over Georgescu’s success. It said it was aware Romania’s current government is “unfriendly towards us”.

But it distanced itself from Georgescu, saying: “We cannot really say we are familiar with this candidate’s stance on relations with our country.”