‘Risk’ analyses largely ignore the dangers of the climate crisis. Unless we wake up to them, they will soon outweigh all others

The Irish sea captain who in 1751 discovered the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (Amoc) – closely connected with, though not identical to, the Gulf Stream – found a practical use for it: he used the frigid deeper water to cool his wine.

That may seem a rather frivolous response, but of course, Capt Henry Ellis had no idea that the oceanic pattern he had stumbled upon had been critical to the climate, the agriculture and indeed the entire development of western Europe. The same excuse can hardly be made for British and European governments today.

Anatol Lieven is director of the Eurasia programme at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft and author of Climate Change and the Nation State: The Realist Case