Financial markets don’t expect a cut until April but a fall in the Australian dollar on Monday suggests confidence one is on the cards

A shopping surge on Christmas and Boxing Day could help determine the timing of interest rate relief as the Reserve Bank of Australia watches for a recovery in weak economic activity.

Consumers are predicted to splash $3.7bn in the last week of 2024 on top of an expected $70bn in the lead-up to Christmas, according to projections from the Australian Retailers Association and Roy Morgan.

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