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With Americans heading to the polls today, the financial markets are in a state of high excitement over the race to the White House.

Market volatility has been picking up in recent days, as investors have tried to assess the likely winner of today’s presidential election, and how congressional elections may play out too.

Uncertainty around control of Congress, particularly the House, could also extend longer than uncertainty over who is in the White House. And a contested result could add still more days or weeks of market volatility.

We have been anticipating a pick-up in volatility as the election nears, and this week is likely to see a peak in that volatility, lasting until we have an unambiguous outcome. This is a key reason why we have been counselling against taking substantial active positions—particularly active positions tilted to one or other election result.