The Oz-set blockbuster, plus the Inside Out and Dune sequels, packed out cinemas but won’t win best picture at Sunday’s Academy Awards

Box-office success is a strong indicator of Oscars failure at this year’s Academy Awards, with the two highest-grossing best picture nominees among those titles least likely to win.

Wicked and Dune: Part Two have both made more than $700m globally, but neither is tipped – by anyone – to pick up the top prize on Sunday in Hollywood. Wicked, Jon M Chu’s first half of his adaptation of the Broadway musical, is currently on $728m, from an estimated $150m production budget.