Labour mismanagement of Welsh public services and an unambitious Conservative party are a gift to Nigel Farage

In just over a year’s time, the people of Wales will go to the polls to elect members to our parliament, the Senedd. It will be a crucial election for the people of Cymru, where Welsh Labour has been in charge for a quarter of a century. We have Britain’s longest NHS waiting list and the UK’s worst school-test results ranking.

Wales is desperate for a grown-up discussion about how to fix these problems, and for political parties that have the drive, vision and competency to make it happen. But what they are likely to get, the polls show, is a big dose of Reform UK, with the party polling at around 23%. This means it could become the largest party.

Will Hayward is a Guardian columnist