There’s a global tidal wave sweeping away incumbents. It’s concentrating minds at Number 10 about their re-election chances

German politicians used to know where they were with their voters. If they gave you one term in power, they were likely to offer a second serving and quite possibly third and sometimes even fourth helpings. Konrad Adenauer, the Christian Democrat who was the first chancellor of West Germany, had more than 14 years in the role. The social democrat Helmut Schmidt clocked up more than eight. Helmut Kohl, whose captaincy encompassed the fall of the Berlin Wall and reunification, was at the helm for 16 years. It was seven for Gerhard Schröder and 16 for Angela Merkel. Chancellor of Germany used to come with lots of job security.

Read those numbers and weep, Olaf Scholz. The recent implosion of his “traffic light” coalition is to be followed by early elections. Given how he’s polling, it will be a huge surprise if Herr Scholz is returned as chancellor. He won’t have managed to get to the end of one term, never mind enjoy the multiple ones awarded to most of his predecessors.