Headlines about Whitehall cuts obscure the real intent. The PM wants effective, dynamic administration that voters will believe in

When Keir Starmer’s government finally arrives on the threshold of the next general election, due in 2028-29, Labour’s hopes will not rest on the battlefields of Ukraine, however well-judged Starmer’s diplomacy is proving to be in that conflict right now. Labour’s long-term fate will instead be determined here at home, in the way all elections almost always are.

As so often, the outcome in four years’ time will be decided by whether voters feel more secure then than they did in the past. If they do, they may vote Labour. If they do not, they may turn to the Conservatives and to Reform UK. The government’s preoccupation with this crossroads explains why Downing Street wants the prime minister’s speech on the civil service on Thursday to be seen as a defining choice of direction.

Martin Kettle is a Guardian columnist