The Hindu nationalist prime minister’s push could shift power northward to his political advantage but risks escalating political tensions

When Narendra Modi’s alliance won a narrow majority in last year’s Indian election, it signalled his waning popularity after a decade in power. A victory in 2029 may seem unlikely. Yet his government’s push to redraw parliamentary constituencies using post-2026 census data could tilt the electoral field in his favour.

The process, known as delimitation, ensures each member of parliament represents an equal number of voters – a principle of democratic fairness. Since 1976, however, it has been frozen to avoid penalising Indian states that curbed population growth. If delimitation proceeds, Mr Modi’s populous northern strongholds will gain seats, weakening the political clout of India’s economically dynamic and culturally distinct southern cone. Its five states are governed by different parties but, critically, none belong to Modi’s ruling Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata party (BJP). Southern states have long accused Mr Modi’s government of bias in federal funding and project approvals. Last week’s gathering of the south’s political leadership in Delhi to protest against his move underscores the risk of backlash.