The 97th Academy Awards are almost upon us – here’s our guide to tuning in at home on Sunday and who we reckon will win the top prizes

There’s a febrile atmosphere to the Oscars this year, caused largely by events outside Hollywood’s control. The advent of Trump and the consequent assault on diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives (for which the film industry has been a rather visible target), the widespread devastation of the Los Angeles wildfires, and the ongoing mystery around the deaths of Gene Hackman and his wife Betsy Arakawa, mean that minds are inevitably wandering elsewhere. Like last year, too, strife over Israel/Gaza is hovering in the background. Inside the industry, things aren’t so rosy either: the row over Emilia Pérez star Karla Sofía Gascón’s grotesque social media posts has dominated the awards campaign, while many Hollywooders may be silently quivering at the prospect of AI taking their jobs.

As for the Oscars themselves, in-the-know types are saying the race for best picture is the most open for years. First it seemed like The Brutalist would win, then Anora came roaring through, and now there’s a possibility that Conclave might snatch it. This is assuming, of course, that Emilia Pérez has successfully shot itself in the foot; having emerged at the head of the nominations list with 13, what are the odds it will beat the record of 11, held by The Turning Point (in 1978) and The Color Purple (in 1986), and not win a single one?