Having promised much but delivered not enough, especially on health, Welsh Labour will eye the 2026 vote with trepidation

Since Brexit, one of the hardest tasks in British politics has been to make accurate predictions. Just when you think you know what is going to happen, a prime minister will do something stupid like call an early election during a monsoon, proudly shake hands with dozens of Covid patients, crash the economy (yes, you, Liz) or squander the benefits of a 150-plus majority.

Add to this the rise of Reform UK Party Ltd and Elon Musk’s relentless desire to promote any party globally that resonates with his “divorced dad energy”, and you would be hard pressed to guess what awaits the UK in the 2029 general election.

Will Hayward is a Guardian columnist. He publishes a regular newsletter on Welsh politics and is the author of Independent Nation: Should Wales Leave the UK?