Hezbollah is still armed and has the potential to attack Israel. But more significantly it has in effect abandoned Hamas

Now that the dust has settled, quite literally, following the ceasefire agreement between Hezbollah and Israel, it is crucial to ask whether this deal will last – because, let’s face it, we’ve been here before.

In 2006, Hezbollah and Israel fought viciously for more than a month for reasons not dissimilar to today’s context. By conducting a cross-border raid against Israeli troops, Hezbollah sought to alleviate some pressure on Hamas, which was battling with Israel in Gaza. The operation backfired, triggering a devastating conflict that led to the killing of roughly 1,100 Lebanese and 160 Israelis, and to massive displacement and damage to infrastructure in southern Lebanon. At home, Hezbollah was heavily criticised by most of Lebanese society for its unilateral decision, but, as always, it evaded accountability thanks to its guns.

Bilal Y Saab, an associate fellow with Chatham House, is the head of the US-Middle East practice of Trends Research & Advisory