The case of former Governor Nasir El-Rufai and his  former commissioners is a curious one. These are people who burned every bridge within their capacity to aid Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Uba Sani into power. But as time passed, the benefactors did not show them any gratitude. Instead, they are being threatened with a series of prosecutions. Currently, they are out of options, and the only choice is to join a different political party.

Since leaving APC, I have read several columns about El-Rufai’s quick transition to SDP—a party that has allegedly signed an agreement with the APC. If he is unaware of the consensus, at least simple research would have found him the captions and pictures on social media where the leadership met.

As a self-acclaimed intellectual and a founding member of the APC who holds a neoliberal ideology, it is also surprising how he chose SDP, given it is based on a socialist ideology. Seems like desperation has turned him into those politicians they derided as having no ideology and principles.

Former President Muhammadu Buhari’s quick denial of not being an APC member but a nationalist was another point deep cut to El-Rufai’s temperamental switch. The statement helped kill off the momentum that he anticipated, which would have seen people joining in droves. Similarly, Sule Lamido’s interview on BBC Hausa was a big dent to the get-angry-and-join-us tactic. The former Jigawa State governor emphasised that people cannot be seen leaving a big party like the PDP to join a minor party in the name of a coalition.

The biggest doubt is regarding his true intentions behind forming a coalition. He has been seen moving around with Atiku Abubakar while discussing coalition. However, his association with the former vice president forced the elder statesman to deny the rumour that he was leaving his party for SDP. This has served as a caution for Atiku as he should only align with those with positive intentions to form a united opposition to unseat the incumbent party.

If a coalition is the true intention, why is he unwilling to discuss an alliance with the PDP in Kaduna? One strong possibility is that El-Rufai suspects Kaduna PDP will not accommodate him. Still, this question is pertinent because SDP has no existing structure in Kaduna State, the home base of El-Rufai.

On the contrary, PDP only lost the gubernatorial election by the narrowest margin; it has three senators, 10 House of Representatives members, and eight State Assembly members. One would think if the intention was to provide a formidable opposition to the incumbent APC in Kaduna and Nigeria, they would be looking to align with a party that is in a position to unseat them.

So what pushed El-Rufai to make this erratic jump? Well, the truth is staring us right in the face. There is but one explanation: El-Rufai and his commissioners chose to switch party allegiances to evade prosecution. Any other narrative is secondary. This is why many now see SDP as a protest group within the APC. It is only aiming to achieve individual goals that differ from the interests of the people. The individual goal is nothing but a tactic to help El-Rufai and his  commissioners avoid prosecution.

The glaring evidence is how El-Rufai has been ranting on social media by twisting the narrative that his former Kaduna State commissioners are being persecuted because they have joined SDP. Jafaru Sani, a former local government commissioner, was one good example. He was quick to post on his X handle that Jafaru was abducted by a kidnapping gang claiming to be the police and was remanded in prison custody by a magistrate court. He added that Jafaru is being charged with money laundering, a federal offence that neither the state judiciary nor the police has jurisdiction to adjudicate or investigate. The social media outcry compelled the Kaduna Police Command to refute the allegation made by the former governor.

Those who observe his pattern can detect the intent. Before joining the SDP, he had attempted to use social media posts to pressure the state government into releasing his former finance commissioner, Bashir Saidu, and his aide, Jimi Lawal, but the effort proved futile. Both spent a significant amount of time before being granted bail.

Therefore, the strategy of joining the SDP is effective and could even afford him political immunity if the SDP becomes vibrant.

However, people have refused to buy the narrative. So far, the only notable figure to have joined the party other than El-Rufai and his commissioners is Hamza Al-Mustapha. With all due respect, Al- Mustapha cannot move a needle in the grand scheme of state or geopolitical zone politics. This opinion is based on his personality, past performances in the general elections, and current relevance in regional politics.

Funny enough, El-Rufai made a deal out of MC Tagwaye’s joining the party. And you know all arguments are lost for the party when you see El-Rufai celebrating a skit maker, known for his parodies about Buhari, for joining the SDP.

We can all speculate but agree that El-Rufai is not as unwise as his political move appears. His myopic strategy reminds me of the proverb, “What pushes the rat to fall into the fire must be hotter than the fire.” His desperation is telling. Indeed, time erodes gratitude more quickly than it does beauty.