The recalibration of Nigeria’s inflation index to a headline rate of 24.48 per cent is being hailed by some as a milestone of progress. Yet, a closer examination of up-to-date data reveals that this figure is less an indicator of a revived economy than a reworked statistical narrative that masks underlying economic malaise.
The Nigerian Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shifted its base year from 2014 to 2018—a technical adjustment that has materially altered the composition of the consumer basket and the weighting of essential goods. While such a move might be defended as aligning Nigerian metrics with global best practices, its timing, amid a series of disappointing economic indicators for 2024 and Q1 2025, is deeply suspect.
Recent data from Q1 2025 show that headline inflation has crept upward to 26.5 per cent—a clear signal that the nominal improvement announced by the NBS is more cosmetic than substantive. In Q1 2024, Nigeria’s economy registered a GDP growth of only 2.1 per cent, reflecting the stagnant pace of economic recovery despite years of policy promises. Meanwhile, the naira’s instability persists; over the past year, it has depreciated by approximately 10 per cent against the US dollar, adding to the chronic uncertainty that undermines both consumer confidence and investor sentiment.
Beyond aggregate figures, a closer look at the sectoral data reveals an even bleaker picture. Although the revised inflation rate suggests moderate price increases, essential commodities tell a different story. For instance, food prices have surged by over 33 per cent since early 2024, and housing costs have risen by nearly 30 per cent—figures that starkly contrast with the sanitised headline figure. These discrepancies underscore the fact that the recalibrated index effectively dilutes the harsh realities faced by ordinary Nigerians, whose day-to-day expenses continue to spiral upward.
This recalibration appears less like a neutral update and more like a deliberate diversion. With the federal government’s policy measures failing to stimulate robust growth—evidenced by fiscal deficits that hovered around 5.8 per cent of GDP in 2024—the timing of this statistical adjustment raises uncomfortable questions. While emerging economies such as Ghana and Kenya have successfully reduced their inflation rates to near-single digits through comprehensive reforms, Nigeria’s reliance on statistical readjustments has done little to address the deep-seated structural issues that stymie economic progress.
International institutions remain skeptical. The International Monetary Fund’s Q1 2025 update notes that Nigeria’s inflation rate remains well above the global average of 5.8 per cent, and its GDP growth stubbornly lingers below three per cent. Similarly, the World Bank’s latest Nigeria Economic Update points to chronic issues—such as a depreciating currency, insufficient infrastructural investment, and fiscal indiscipline—that no mere recalibration can fix. Instead, the new figures risk misleading both domestic and international stakeholders, presenting a narrative that conceals as much as it reveals.
The recalibrated inflation rate is, in effect, a statistical sleight of hand—one that attempts to deflect attention from persistent policy failures. Rather than confronting the structural challenges of a depreciating naira, ballooning food costs, and an economy hamstrung by underinvestment, policymakers have opted for a cosmetic tweak. This approach does nothing to resolve the real economic pain experienced by millions of Nigerians. Instead, it serves as a palliative measure—an effort to calm a restless public and to shore up international confidence in a government that has yet to deliver tangible reforms.
Real economic transformation demands more than just altered figures. It requires a commitment to structural reforms that stimulate investment, promote job creation, and stabilise the currency. Nigeria must move beyond short-term fixes and embrace long-term strategies that address the root causes of inflation and economic stagnation. Until then, the revised inflation figures will remain a veneer—a distraction from the urgent need for policies that truly serve the interests of the nation’s citizens.
As critical observers, it is our responsibility to look beyond the numbers. The recalibrated inflation rate of 24.48 per cent—and its modest rise to 26.5 per cent in Q1 2025—should not be mistaken for evidence of economic revival. Rather, these figures highlight the gulf between statistical adjustments and the everyday realities of life in Nigeria. The façade of progress, built on altered metrics, can only delay the inevitable reckoning with an economy that remains deeply fragile. For genuine progress to occur, a shift in focus is imperative—one that prioritises substantive reform over numerical legerdemain.
Hanga wrote from Kano