A retired diplomat, Ambassador Suleiman Dahiru, spoke with Weekend Trust on the imminent withdrawal of Niger, Burkina-Faso and Mali from the ECOWAS. The former envoy who had served in Brazil, Angola, Poland, Ivory Coast, Vienna, Austria, Sudan, Pakistan and Sudan, said Nigeria mismanaged the relationship between the regional bloc and Niger. Excerpts:
What are your thoughts about the decision by ECOWAS to finally approve the withdrawal of Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso from the bloc from January 29, 2025?
We have to understand one thing, every sovereign country has the right to what is in its best interest. Now those three countries: Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, in fact they didn’t give notice, they just said they had withdrawn from ECOWAS because they had been treated unfairly.
We all know, those who are following developments in ECOWAS and in those three countries, the moment they gave notice that they’ve withdrawn, immediately they started taking measures in order to make sure that their withdrawal took immediate effect.
You can remember that they now introduced their own passport which is different from the ECOWAS passport. If they have their own different passport, it means they have nothing to do with ECOWAS.
We should remember some months ago, the leaders of military juntas had a meeting, I think in Niamey or in Ouagadougou in Burkina Faso and they decided that whatever happened they were not going to reconsider their decision of leaving ECOWAS.
They claim they left because ECOWAS was serving the interest of the colonial masters but what do you think really triggered their decision?
One can guess maybe with these reasons: they felt that in their hour of need, ECOWAS didn’t help them. Now you have to ask yourself what type of help? They’re having serious problems and security challenges in their countries, especially Burkina Faso and Mali and no help came for them.
But then the difficult thing is whether ECOWAS is in a position to help them. ECOWAS is not in any position to help them because the country that would have bankrolled the help either by sending soldiers or by sending a lot of money and aid is Nigeria and Nigeria is grappling with its own problems. The kind of role Nigeria played in Sierra Leone and in Liberia in the 80s is no longer feasible because Nigeria is not in a strong financial position to do anything.
Now, the coup in Niger, in my opinion, maybe the trigger for the decision to leave ECOWAS because Mali and Burkina have been under sanctions – economic sanctions by ECOWAS and they have been suspended from ECOWAS. African Union (AU) has also suspended them. But the ECOWAS in my opinion would appear to be more tolerant of those two countries not taking any serious action against them. So, they didn’t have any strong reason to leave ECOWAS. So, the coup in Niger took place, and when the coup took place, in my opinion, ECOWAS took prosecutive actions.
The switch off of electricity supply from Nigeria to Niger, which to me was a very serious issue. Now the border between Nigeria and Niger was closed down. If you live in the northern part of Nigeria, you know that Niger and the northern part of Nigeria are like one country because of cross-border bondage by nationals of both countries. But you closed the border, movement came to a standstill and on top of that you switched off the electricity supply. That must have angered them to feel Nigeria which they have relied on over the years now had suddenly turned against them.
If you listened to commentaries on televisions and radios from people from Niger Republic, they felt betrayed that Nigeria could take such drastic action against them. Even though the decisions against Niger were decisions of ECOWAS. Nigeria was heading ECOWAS, so, naturally, they would feel that it was Nigeria that was pushing for all these things. Especially if you take into account that Nigeria is shouldering more than 60 per cent of the activities of ECOWAS. It contributes over 60 per cent of the budget of ECOWAS. So, it’s Nigeria they will naturally feel was against them.
Should ECOWAS be worried that other Member States may withdraw soon?
The implication is that the ECOWAS instead of 15 countries, now has 12. If you remember when ECOWAS came into existence in 1975, the countries were 16, but Mauritania broke away from ECOWAS and they gave a very good reason – acceptable reason for breaking away. They said they were in the Arab-Magreb Union which were the countries in North Africa. So, the remaining 15 continued without any problem till when the problems of those three countries came about. But you have to understand one thing ECOWAS said it would not tolerate illegal change of government that is military government. But when ECOWAS said including the African Union that they would not tolerate the military government, do they have anything to make sure they stop the military from taking over? They do not have.
What about the use of military action as mooted in the case of the coup in Niger?
When ECOWAS mooted the idea of military action, we saw the military top brass in West Africa meeting in Nigeria and Ghana to strategise the modality of striking Niger to reinstate Mohammed Bazoum, but nothing happened.
Maybe they didn’t understand the financial implications of invading another country. It costs a lot of money and it’s going to cause a lot of destruction of property in the part of Niger. There’s going to be loss of lives on both sides. So, the military action that was contemplated fizzled out, so those countries felt that ECOWAS was just making bombastic statements without the goodwill to implement those decisions so the whole thing just collapsed.
What are the implications of the withdrawals of these three countries, especially for Nigerians?
The implication is that ECOWAS is no longer what it used to be. But you also had to entertain fear. These three countries are francophones. Now what of the remaining francophone countries in ECOWAS like Senegal, Togo and Benin Republic? They were also French colonies, they may feel they should join the Sahel states. I am just thinking that it may just happen but may not happen. But I can guarantee you that if those countries were still under the orbit of the French, the French might’ve engineered Togo, Benin Republic and Senegal to join the three Sahel states. But we don’t know what is going to happen. The francophone countries normally agree with each other. Now the anglophone countries and the lusophone countries —the Portuguese-speaking countries—Guinea Bissau and Cape Verde. Guinea Bissau would naturally want to remain with the anglophone countries. So, we have to be very careful in the way we manage the French members so that we don’t get some others breaking away.
Do you think efforts being made by Nigeria to ensure their return will not work?
President (Bola) Tinubu said when the German president came that they were going to employ diplomacy to get those countries back. Now they are going to employ diplomacy, but we have to understand that when the coup took place, diplomacy was employed to make the matter settled. If you can remember the delegation of traditional rulers even the military high brass and even our respected General Abdulsalami Abubakar were all in Niamey to get the military juntas to reconsider their position. But in reconsidering their position, the issue of Mohammed Bazoum being reinstated became a sticky point. If diplomacy was going to work, in my opinion, it would have to wait until when these three countries return to civil rule or democratic rule. When they are under democratic rule, the civilian leaders of those countries may decide to go for a referendum on whether they should return to ECOWAS or not. But at the moment, there is no hope of these countries coming back to ECOWAS in the immediate future.
We have this multinational joint military that is fighting Boko Haram in the north. What will be the implication of Niger’s withdrawal from ECOWAS on the operation of this joint force?
Now I asked you as a journalist, are the troops of Niger Republic on the Nigeria border fighting Boko Haram and other insurgents? I think they are confined within their territory not the Nigerian territory. When President Buhari made his shuttle for presidential diplomacy to neighbours of Nigeria, they all came on board and formed a joint multinational force. But now I don’t think Niger would be part of it because they are no more in ECOWAS and they have a strained relationship with Nigeria. Perhaps if there is any war or any fighting along borders, they will come in and as military professionals, they may work together with Nigeria and solve the problem. But the way we saw it before I don’t see it happening now.