Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi's smiles on June 4, 2024, belied the harsh reality of the Congress party's third-worst performance in parliamentary elections. Winning only 99 seats, the party failed to cross the three-figure mark for the third consecutive time. While the BJP's tally dropped from 303 to 240, it still secured a third term in power. The Congress's modest gain from 52 to 99 seats seemed to be the only consolation, earning Rahul Gandhi the post of the Leader of Opposition.

However, this surge masked the party's dismal state assembly results. In Andhra Pradesh, Congress drew a blank, yet again, while in Arunachal Pradesh, it managed just one seat. Sikkim saw its fourth consecutive zero, and in Odisha, the BJP ousted the BJD, leaving Congress with a mere 14 seats. The trend continued in Haryana, Maharashtra, and Delhi, where the party's performance remained lacklustre, failing to regain relevance.

The Congress' fleeting optimism was overshadowed by its inability to address systemic issues. If these dismal shows reflect its struggle to connect with voters, bigger challenges lie ahead as half a dozen states are set to go to polls over the next 14 months. While Bihar is set to elect its new legislative assembly in October-November this year, polls in Assam, West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Puducherry will follow in May-June next year.

The Congress party has struggled to improve its position wherever it is not among the top two parties in a state. Of these six states, Congress is number two only in Assam and Kerala.

In Bihar, Congress stood at a poor fourth position behind its ally RJD (75 seats), BJP (74) and JD-U (43) in the 2020 elections. The fourth spot in Bihar has become its permanent position, that too as a junior partner to the RJD. Similarly, in Tamil Nadu, it depends on the ruling DMK to stay afloat, finishing third in 2021 with just 18 seats in the 234-member assembly. Without the RJD and DMK, Congress' political standing in these states would be unimaginable. The RJD already sees Congress as a liability, blaming it for the Mahagathbandhan's failure to secure a majority in 2020.

In West Bengal, the Congress failed to open its account in the 2021 assembly elections. It fared no better in Puducherry, finishing fourth with just two seats. In Assam and Kerala, where it finished second, the results were still underwhelming. Congress won only 16 seats in Assam's 126-member assembly. In Kerala, it secured 21 seats, a distant second to the CPM's 62.

The bigger question is whether Congress should abandon pre-poll alliances and contest elections independently to rebuild its grassroots base. Even in Delhi, where it failed to win a single seat for the third consecutive time, its vote share increased by 2.08 per cent, offering a glimmer of hope. However, some argue that Congress' presence split votes, aiding the BJP's return to power in Delhi after over 25 years.

One of the prime reasons for Congress's decline is its flawed strategy of playing junior partner to regional parties to counter the BJP. This approach eroded its base in states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, allowing the BJP to fill the vacuum and emerge stronger. The same strategy backfired in West Bengal, where the Congress first allied with the Trinamool Congress and later sought refuge under the Left Front, eroding its credibility.

Short-sighted alliances during Sonia Gandhi's presidency have left the party a shadow of its former self. In contrast, the BJP's approach offers lessons. The BJP has never hesitated to part ways with allies when necessary. For instance, when Shiv Sena under Uddhav Thackeray broke ties in Maharashtra post-2019, the BJP continued its ascent while the Thackeray faction faltered.

In Haryana, the JJP allied with the BJP in 2019 but later walked out. While the JJP struggled, the BJP thrived. Similarly, in Odisha, the BJD split from the BJP and witnessed the latter after a few years replacing it as the ruling party. In Punjab, the Akali Dal's decision to sever ties with the BJP has left it regretting, while the BJP is steadily building its base for the 2027 assembly polls. Even in Tamil Nadu, where the AIADMK broke away, the BJP is gradually gaining strength.

The Congress leadership must diagnose its ailments and take bold steps. There are murmurs in Bihar that the party might contest alone to strengthen its grassroots presence, even at the cost of short-term losses. Post-poll alliances are acceptable, but pre-poll alliances with regional parties must be reconsidered if the Congress hopes to regain its lost political ground.

The Congress party’s challenges are not just electoral but also ideological. Its inability to project a cohesive vision for the future has alienated voters, especially the youth. On the contrary, the BJP has successfully positioned itself as a party of change and development, resonating with aspirations across demographics. The Congress must redefine its narrative to regain its relevance.

The road ahead is arduous but not impossible. The Congress must embrace introspection and innovation, discarding outdated strategies and embracing bold reforms. The first step in that direction is acknowledging that its present policies, programmes, and leadership are taking it nowhere but down.

Ajay Jha is a senior journalist, author and political commentator.