After nearly 21 months of unrest and turmoil in Manipur and amidst repeated calls for his resignation, Chief Minister Biren Singh finally decided to step down. The big question is, however, whether peace will now return to the violence-hit state. After a two-hour meeting with Union Home Minister Amit Shah and the BJP president, J.P. Nadda, in the Capital, Singh flew back to Imphal to submit his resignation to newly appointed Governor, Ajay Kumar Bhalla, on the eve of the budget session of the Assembly. The Congress had threatened to move a no-confidence motion against Singh in the Assembly and the fear was that several BJP MLAs would defy the party whip and vote with the Opposition on the motion. Differences in the Manipur BJP have been simmering for quite some time, with the Kuki and Meitei legislators blaming Singh for the turmoil. The Speaker, too, was not on good terms with the CM. Under these circumstances, Singh was forced to step down.

The Governor has now called off the Assembly session. It remains to be seen if the President’s rule will be imposed or a new chief minister will be named. The beleaguered chief minister had been resisting calls to resign for several months from both the Kukis and the Meiteis, who have held him responsible for the escalation in violence and the failure to control the situation for nearly two years. Almost 250 people have been killed in the violence and more than 70,000 displaced. He had offered to quit last year but was persuaded not to by supporters. The violence in Manipur began on May 3, 2023, the immediate trigger for it being a High Court directive to the state government to recommend to the tribal affairs ministry, within four weeks, that Scheduled Tribe status be accorded to the Meiteis. This upset the Kukis and the Nagas, who felt that their quota pie would be eaten into. Thousands participated in a tribal solidarity march to oppose the demand for including the Meiteis in the ST list.

Ethnic tensions had been brewing for some time after the BJP-led state government started a drive to evict tribals from reserved forest land. In March 2023, a rally to protest this ‘encroachment’ of tribal lands turned violent, leaving five people injured. Amidst this tribal discontent, churches were razed for being illegal constructions on government land, leading to more anger. Therefore, the state government should have been prepared for trouble during the tribal solidarity march called after the High Court directive. However, the spiral of violence and arson that unfolded was unprecedented and could not have been anticipated. It was clear that ethnic tensions were at boiling point and the state government was being viewed with suspicion by the tribal groups. Though the High Court overturned its own ruling, the damage had already been done. The Manipur government had been accusing the tribals of harbouring refugees from Myanmar in a bid to change the demography of the hill regions where they are in a majority. The ethnic rift in the state was gradually turning into a communal conflict as Hindutva elements among the Meiteis were gaining ground, some say at the behest of Biren Singh.

The Manipur government failed to initiate peace talks with all stakeholders in the state to bring the situation under control. The rift between the two communities now appears unassailable. Ethnic divisions have become sharper with the majority Meiteis controlling the Imphal Valley while the hills are controlled by the Kukis. Separating the two areas is a stretch of no-man’s land policed by Central paramilitary forces. The Meiteis do not want any bifurcation of the state while the Kukis are demanding greater autonomy. The Centre and the state have displayed a shocking indifference to the violence that has ravaged Manipur for nearly two years. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is yet to visit the state and assuage the two warring communities. In fact, his first statement on the issue came several months later, after a video exposing horrific atrocities on Kuki women went viral. Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha, Rahul Gandhi, has been relentless in highlighting the PM’s alleged indifference to the north-eastern state. He hailed the resignation of Biren Singh and said it was the result of mounting public pressure, the Supreme Court probe against him, and the Congress decision to move a no-confidence motion. In fact, the Centre’s north-east outreach, through which it has made spectacular electoral gains in the region, has suffered as a result of the Manipur situation. In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the BJP lost both seats in the state. One of its alliance partners in the state government, the Conrad Sangma-led NPP, has walked out. Though this had no impact on the government’s stability, it was a reflection of the lack of confidence in the saffron party to restore normalcy in Manipur.

The oust Biren Singh chorus grew louder after a person from the Kuki community went to the Supreme Court alleging that the chief minister had instigated the violence in the state. His complaint was based on leaked audio tapes purportedly of the chief minister. Truth Labs, an independent forensic agency, has confirmed a 93 percent match between the tapes and Biren Singh’s voice. The Supreme Court has now sought a report from the Central Forensic Laboratory on the leaked audio tapes. Amidst the euphoria of the BJP winning Haryana and Maharashtra and regaining Delhi after 27 years and with Parliament in session, the party high command wanted nothing to mar the mood and therefore asked Singh to resign.

In his resignation letter, he has set the agenda for his successor by urging the Centre to maintain the territorial integrity of Manipur, crack down on border infiltration and formulate a policy for deportation of illegal immigrants, and continue the fight against drugs and narco-terrorism. However, questions will certainly be asked about why the Manipur issue was allowed to fester for so long. The north-east has made tremendous strides in the last few years as the country is recognising the region’s huge potential. Ethnic or communal strife will only set back its progress. The Centre and the state governments must do everything in their power to restore peace to Manipur. The death of so many civilians and the displacement of thousands are unacceptable, and someone must be held accountable for this unspeakable tragedy