The 2025 Delhi Assembly election is shaping up to be a critical juncture for Arvind Kejriwal and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). Having dominated Delhi politics for the past decade, Kejriwal now faces a do-or-die moment as he seeks to retain his hold on the capital amidst mounting challenges and fierce competition.

Kejriwal's journey from anti-corruption crusader to Chief Minister of Delhi has been nothing short of remarkable. His party’s landslide victories in the 2015 and 2020 Delhi Assembly elections, where AAP secured 67 and 62 seats respectively out of 70, cemented his position as a formidable political force. However, the political landscape has shifted significantly since then, and the 2025 election presents a new set of challenges.

One of the most significant factors is the BJP's renewed vigor and strategic focus on Delhi. The BJP, which has so far been unable to wrest control of Delhi from AAP, is leaving no stone unturned in its bid to unseat Kejriwal. The party has fielded Parvesh Sahib Singh Verma, son of former Delhi Chief Minister Sahib Singh Verma, from the New Delhi constituency, setting the stage for a high-stakes showdown. Additionally, the Congress has fielded Sandeep Dikshit, son of former Delhi Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit, further intensifying the competition.

Kejriwal's tenure has not been without controversies. The recent nod by the Delhi Lieutenant Governor to the Enforcement Directorate to prosecute Kejriwal in the Excise Policy case has cast a shadow over his campaign. Allegations of corruption and subsequent legal battles could erode public trust and provide ammunition to his political rivals.

Moreover, internal dynamics within AAP have also posed challenges. The resignation of key leaders like Rajendra Pal Gautam and Rajkumar Anand, who accused the party of being anti- Dalit, has highlighted cracks within the party's support base. These defections have raised questions about AAP’s commitment to social justice and inclusivity, which were once its core strengths.

Despite these challenges, Kejriwal continues to bank on his governance record and welfare schemes to win over voters. AAP has announced a slew of initiatives aimed at addressing the needs of various sections of Delhi’s population. These include the continuation of free electricity for households, the Mukhyamantri Mahila Samman Yojana providing financial support to women, the Sanjeevani Yojana offering free healthcare for senior citizens, and benefits for auto-rickshaw drivers. These schemes reflect AAP's ongoing focus on welfare and development, which has been a cornerstone of its electoral strategy.

Kejriwal's emphasis on education and healthcare has also been a significant factor in his political success. The transformation of Delhi’s government schools and the establishment of Mohalla Clinics have garnered widespread praise and have been instrumental in building AAP's reputation as a party that delivers on its promises. As the 2025 election approaches, Kejriwal is likely to highlight these achievements to counter negative narratives and reinforce his image as a leader committed to the welfare of Delhi’s citizens.

The dynamics within the INDIA bloc, an alliance of opposition parties, will also play a crucial role in the upcoming election. While AAP and Congress are partners in the INDIA bloc at the national level, they remain rivals in Delhi. The lack of a pre-poll alliance between AAP and Congress could potentially split the anti-BJP vote, benefiting the BJP. Kejriwal’s recent ruling out of any alliance with Congress in the Delhi Assembly elections underscores the complexities of coalition politics and the challenges of maintaining unity within the INDIA bloc.

The Dalit vote, which has traditionally been a strong support base for AAP, will be a critical factor in the 2025 election. The defections of key Dalit leaders and allegations of the party being anti-Dalit have created a perception problem for AAP. The BJP and Congress are likely to capitalize on this discontent to woo Dalit voters. Kejriwal will need to address these concerns head-on and demonstrate a genuine commitment to the issues that matter most to Dalit communities to retain their support.

Similarly, the Muslim vote, which constitutes approximately 15–18% of Delhi’s population, will be crucial. Historically, the Muslim community has played a pivotal role in determining electoral outcomes in Delhi. In the 2015 Assembly polls, AAP experienced a significant breakthrough, with an estimated 77% of Muslim voters supporting the party. However, by 2020, this support had waned slightly, with 69% of Muslims backing AAP. The decision to contest the 2025 election without an alliance with Congress could see AAP's influence in this critical demographic wane further, as Congress has been quick to capitalize on a growing sense of alienation among Muslim voters.

As the 2025 Delhi Assembly election approaches, Kejriwal finds himself at a crossroads. The stakes are higher than ever, and the challenges are formidable. The BJP’s aggressive campaign, the shadow of controversies, internal party dynamics, and the complexities of coalition politics all add to the pressure on Kejriwal.

However, Kejriwal’s resilience and ability to connect with voters have been his strengths. His focus on governance and welfare, coupled with his track record of delivering on promises, provides a strong foundation for his campaign. The upcoming election will test his leadership and ability to navigate the turbulent political landscape.

The author, a columnist and research scholar, teaches journalism at St. Xavier’s College (autonomous), Kolkata. His handle on X is @sayantan_gh.