In May 2020, after causing a global pandemic by leaking the Covid 19 virus from Wuhan Institute of Virology, China’s Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) launched its second aggression (the 1962 Sino-Indian war was called the Chinese Aggression) on India in Ladakh.

On May 5, 2020, the first standoff began as a clash between Indian and Chinese soldiers at Pangong Tso (tso means a lake) shared between India and China — actually, China-occupied Tibet — with the Line of Actual Control (LAC) passing through it. A video showed soldiers from both nations engaging in fistfights and stone-pelting along the LAC. On 10/11 May, in another clash a number of soldiers on both sides sustained injuries. Indian media reported that around 72 Indian soldiers were injured in the confrontation at Pangong Tso, and some had to be flown to hospitals in Leh, Chandi Mandir and Delhi. Reportedly, China occupied 65 square kilometres in this area.

PLA began amassing troops and fortifying its presence along the LAC since April-May 2020. Twenty soldiers were killed on June 15 in the Galwan Valley in eastern Ladakh in violent clashes with PLA troops, who used crude iron rods studded with nails. Indian troops reacted fiercely but ironically without firearms, conforming to an agreement pressed by China since 1967 after the skirmishes at Nathu La and Cho La, Sikkim, of not firing at each other. In this retaliation without any firearms, while officially 43 Chinese soldiers were killed, according to some other reports, about 100 Chinese troops were killed.

Reportedly, intelligence inputs on August 31, 2020 put the Chinese control of territory within the India's perception of the LAC at about 900 square kilometres. Other intelligence inputs provided to the Centre suggest that about 1,000 square kilometres of area in Ladakh along the LAC is under Chinese control.

In September 2020, Indian Army surprised PLA by occupying the Kailash Range, which rattled the Chinese as their entire Moldo garrison could be clearly seen and effectively targeted. The Chinese pressed very hard and Indian Government ordered the Army to vacate this area. Retaining it would have provided India great leverage in negotiations.

Over four years and four months till February 2024, 21 military meetings between corps commanders were all inconclusive, largely owing to intransigence by the Chinese. What they wanted was to keep the border disengagement issue on the back burner and continue with economic cooperation on their terms.

On October 21, 2024, two days prior to a meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping during the BRICS Summit at Kazan, Russia, a “breakthrough” was announced.

So, what were the reasons for this surprise breakthrough? India maintained that its ties with China cannot be normal unless there is peace along the LAC. In all negotiations since the standoff began, India has been pressing the PLA to disengage from the Depsang and Demchok areas.

On October 21, 2024, Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri was reported stating, “Over the last several weeks, Indian and Chinese diplomatic and military negotiators have been in close contact with each other in a variety of forums... As a result of these discussions, agreement has been arrived at patrolling arrangements along the Line of Actual Control in the India-China border areas, leading to disengagement and a resolution of the issues that had arisen in these areas in 2020... We will be taking the next steps on this."

Shortly after the announcement on October 21, 2024, the disengagement process began at two friction points along the LAC and was reportedly completed by October 29. Five tents on each side in the Demchok area and half of the temporary structures in Depsang were dismantled.

There are more temporary structures/tents on both sides, all of which are scheduled to be removed. Once all tents and temporary structures have been fully removed, a joint verification process will begin, both on the ground and through aerial surveys. Discussions on the four buffer zones, including Galwan, have not yet been held.

Addressing members of the Indian community at the University of Queensland in Brisbane on November 3, 2024, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said, "In terms of India and China, yes, we have made some progress. You know, our relations were very, very disturbed... We have made some progress in what we call disengagement, which is when troops were very close to each other, with the possibility that could lead to some untoward incident…. There are very large numbers of Chinese troops deployed along the LAC who were not there before 2020. And we, in turn, have counter deployed. There are other aspects of the relationship which also got affected during this period. So clearly, we have to see after the disengagement, what is the direction we will go."

Lt Gen Rakesh Sharma (retd), former GOC of a corps in Ladakh, interacting with this writer, stated, “The issue of prevalent mistrust must be addressed. Extensive confidence building measures agreed to between 1993 and 2013 were not adequate to prevent many fisticuffs, scuffles or long-drawn stand-offs even before 2020... de-escalation of the PLA to pre-2020 positions remain a far cry, with much infrastructure including habitat created in South Xinjiang and other areas... and a new procedure of ‘escorted patrols’ should certainly not be agreed to.”

Through May and June 2020, the Chinese broke all agreements made over half a century. They will not hesitate to break any more in the future too. Removing tents is no big deal. We should not be surprised if they do not remove concrete structures. India must not get complacent in the least, but maintain a close watch and ensure modernisation as well as replacement of weapons and equipment.

Col Anil Bhat, VSM (Retd), a strategic affairs analyst and former Defence Ministry and Indian Army spokesperson, can be contacted at wordsword02@gmail.com