Donald Trump’s sweeping win as the next United States President is causing tremors, in the US and globally. The instantaneous announcement of nominees for crucial posts is creating ripples. The implications for the US, the world and India need examination.
The least controversial announcements were of Senator Marco Rubio as the Secretary of State and Congressman Mike Waltz as the National Security Adviser. Both are known China hawks and thus welcome for India too. But consternation followed announcement of Congressman Matt Gaetz as Attorney General, former Democrat and self-proclaimed Hindu Tulsi Gabbard as Director National Intelligence and former Fox News weekend host Pete Hegseth as Defence Secretary. Gaetz resigned quickly from the Congress, stymieing an Ethics Committee report examining sex trafficking charges. His main attribute is loyalty to Trump as he has limited legal experience or reputation for wisdom. Gabbard is known to often echo the Russian disinformation on Ukraine. Gaetz, though a decorated veteran with the rank of major, lacks experience of handling higher positions. He endeared himself to MAGA followers by attacking wokeness-tolerant senior defence personnel. Peter Baker in The New York Times calls it a selection of “firebrand allies with unconventional resumes”.
Most analysts observe that this is hardly surprising as it aligns with Trump’s grievances and promises during his campaign. He also nurses deeply ingrained past angst against some of the institutions. The Justice Department had successfully resisted his demand to prosecute political foes like the Clintons. The Pentagon had denied the military’s use against domestic political protestors or other Trumpian targets. The intelligence, likewise, kept national interests supreme when nailing Russian electoral interference in the 2016 election to help Trump. Trump wants to restructure the government’s functioning, including replacing permanent government servants with party loyalists.
The impact is immediate on two important summits — the UN-sponsored COP 29 on November 11-22 in Azerbaijan on climate change and G-20 on November 18-19 in Brazil. With Trump’s anti-climate change pronouncements and past conduct of abandoning the Paris Climate agreement, COP 29 faces headwinds. The host, authoritarian President Ilham Aliyev, felt emboldened to call criticism of fossil fuels as “political hypocrisy” adding they are a “gift of God”. Lame-duck US President Joe Biden will attend the G20 summit, but Trump’s shadow and fear of a tariff war and dislocated global trade will affect the outcome.
A novel proposal is for a Department of Government Expenditure (DOGE), headed jointly by world’s richest man Elon Musk and Indian origin billionaire Vivek Ramaswamy. The target is to cut government inefficiency and expenditure by $ 2 trillion. Reminds of PM Narendra Modi replacing the Planning Commission by NITI Aayog in 2014. How it pans out remains to be seen as scrapping or reduction of social benefits may produce a political backlash.
Indian External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar opined that Trump’s reemergence does not worry India. He may have spoken too soon, as two elements may do so. One is the emphasis on deporting illegal or irregular persons. Indians in this category are estimated to be over 7.5 lakh, many from Gujarat. Detentions can highly disrupt social cohesion and economic health of the US. Trump’s bark was expected to be worse than his bite. However, the bulk of the proposed appointments defy that. Secondly Trump will impose threatened tariffs on imports. Chinese products could attract 60% tariffs while those from other countries 10-20%. Trump has occasionally mentioned high Indian import duties, often quoting erroneous numbers.
Therefore the period immediately after Trump assumes office on January 20 needs close monitoring. It is possible, though unlikely, that the Senate may push back on some of the nominees. Trump is threatening to use a never-invoked constitutional provision to push the Senate into forced recess, clearing the path for appointments without legislative scrutiny. Some senators fear this would be tantamount to the Senate’s death. This would be like the slow debasement of Indian parliamentary procedures and conventions. The misuse of the Money Bill exemption from Rajya Sabha veto is a glaring example.
Democratic recession in the US would be welcomed by authoritarian regimes globally, but especially by Russia and China. It would end American finger pointing on democratic degradation elsewhere. The BJP government can benefit on two counts. One, the Pannun issue could be left to the New York court trying the fugitive Gupta. The US is unlikely to pursue accountability of others in India. Two, Canadian PM Justin Trudeau may face growing dissonance in relations with the US. Illegals in the US facing a clampdown may head into Canada using unmonitored parts of the border. Also the Khalistan lobby in the US will find less sympathy as escape routes of asylum get restricted and freedom to raise anti-India slogans curtailed, in a general crackdown on dissent.
Trump knows he has less than a year as thereafter the focus shifts to the 2026 midterms. If the dislocation outweighs visible gains, public opinion can quickly turn negative. Hopefully even weakened US guardrails will contain Trumpian chaos.
KC Singh is former secretary, Ministry of External Affairs