The Nagpur Central assembly constituency is all set for an intense multi-cornered contest, with 20 candidates vying to win over 3,41,169 voters. 

Traditional rivals, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress, continue to dominate this key battleground. However, with independent and smaller parties gaining influence, the competition is expected to be fierce. Key voter demographics, including the Halba and Muslim communities, will likely play decisive roles in shaping the election's outcome.

Past results

The BJP has held the Nagpur Central seat for the past three terms, bolstered by candidate Vikas Kumbhare from the influential Halba community. Kumbhare first claimed victory in 2009, toppling Congress stronghold with a significant win over Congress’s Ramchandra Deoghare. He continued to secure his seat through consecutive elections, with BJP capturing around 46.37% of the vote share in 2019, while Congress followed as the main opposition. Despite this dominance, smaller parties like AIMIM and VBA have made inroads, gradually fragmenting the voter base. AIMIM’s 5.25% vote share in 2019 weakened Congress’s standing, further complicating traditional voter patterns.

Constituency overview and demographics

The Nagpur Central constituency has seen notable changes in its demographic landscape, especially after the 2008 delimitation. Congress’s strongholds, such as Mohan Nagar and Gaddigodam, were transferred to West Nagpur, while 1,50,000 voters from other parts of Nagpur were added to the constituency. This reshuffling tipped the scales, giving BJP a foothold in areas like Prabhags 12 and 25. Prabhag 24, a densely populated Muslim region encompassing Mominpura and Bhaldarpura, remains a critical area where Congress continues to compete closely with BJP, often trailing by narrow margins.

New entrants and strategic shifts

For the 2024 elections, BJP has fielded Pravin Datke, an MLC and former mayor, as Kumbhare steps down, while Congress has chosen Bunty Shelke, who previously contested against Kumbhare. Adding pressure to the main contenders, former Congress corporator Ramesh Poonekar is running as an independent, appealing directly to the Halba community, which expected representation within major parties. Additionally, the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) has nominated Haji Mohammad Kalam Abdul Karim, amplifying competition and capturing voter interest.

The VBA’s backing of Abdul Karim emphasises its focus on representing marginalised communities. This new alignment, coupled with the recent fragmentation of votes, hints at a more complex electoral contest in Nagpur Central, making it one of Maharashtra's constituencies to watch in the 2024 elections.

The voting in Maharashtra will take place in one phase on November 20. The results will be declared on November 23.