The formal charges against Vikash Yadav, now a former RAW employee, of directing a foiled bid last year to assassinate in New York, Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, a US citizen who advocated secession of `Khalistan,' brings to a conclusion a prolonged phase of behind-the-scenes discussions between New Delhi and Washington on what it terms “transnational aggression” followed by India.

Vikash, like Nikhil Gupta, who was charged last year, and extradited from Czech Republic to the United States, has been charged with murder-for-hire, which carries a maximum sentence of 10 years in prison; conspiracy to commit murder-for-hire, which carries a maximum sentence of 10 years in prison; and conspiracy to commit money laundering, which carries a maximum sentence of 20 years in prison. The case is pending before U.S. District Judge Victor Marrero. He is the judge who in 2020 famously stymied former President Donald Trump's efforts to keep his tax returns secret.

At his daily press briefing on October 16, the State Department spokesman, Matthew Miller said that the Indian enquiry committee set up to look into American allegations broadly updated the “members of the Committee of Inquiry about the investigation that the United States has been conducting. We’ve received an update from them on the investigation that they have been conducting. It was a productive meeting.” Miller went on to add that “We are satisfied with the cooperation. It continues to be an ongoing process. We continue to work with them on that. We appreciate them updating us on their investigation as we update them on ours.”

More is sure to follow and it is a piecemeal process. On Friday the Ministry of External Affairs confirmed that Yadav was no longer in government service. This raises several questions. At age 39, did Vikash Yadav seek voluntary retirement? Was he sacked? Is he in custody? Or is he in a safe house with the CRPF, ironically, guarding him? There have been some reports claiming that he has been arrested but these stand unsubstantiated. If so, on what charges, and where has he been produced before the courts? Did he turn rogue? More importantly it raises questions about his current whereabouts and whether the government can afford to give him up to the American processes. All these remain shrouded in mystery.

The indictment identifies Yadav as “an employee of the Government of India, working with others in India and elsewhere” and that “during times relevant to this superseding indictment, Yadav was employed by the Cabinet Secretariat of the Government of India, which houses India's foreign intelligence service, the Research and Analysis Wing”. The indictment further says that it is a “part of the Indian Prime Minister's office” and that Vikash had identified himself while furthering the conspiracy as “Senior Field Officer”. It is made clear that Yadav “resided in India and directed the assassination plot from India”. Prior to his secondment to RAW, he was in the CRPF as an “Assistant Commandant” with a command of a 135-man company.” “The telephone number used by Yadav has an India country code and is registered to an e-mail account that, based on Internet Protocol Data, accessed the internet on numerous occasions during the period of the murder plot from the vicinity of Delhi.”

Yadav's communications had been comprehensively compromised by American intelligence which means there were others he was communicating with. Yadav forwarded the name of the target, Pannun, his location, his whereabouts, and there are several incriminating messages that have come into the public domain via the indictment that would make it very difficult to ignore the implications. The Americans were on to Nikhil Gupta and Yadav from the start. The indictment narrative makes it clear that his erstwhile CRPF handler was frustrated with the lack of progress in offing Pannun, and it shows in the Gupta's exhortation to the hitman, ironically a covert American federal intelligence operative, "finish him brother, finish him, don't take too much time ... push these guys, push these guys ... finish the job."

The matter is more complicated for the indictment reveals there were a number of targets in the cross-hairs, and that Pannun was not the only one and not even the top priority. He was way down on Number 3 or 4 and after Pannun “we have so many targets, we have so many targets.” Yadav shared the video of Pannun slumped in his car with Gupta in record time, indicating that there were at least two channels at work, and that Yadav was clearly not working alone.

The indictment makes clear that Nikhil Gupta recruited the hitman only after a criminal case against him was made to disappear by Yadav. The case was in Gujarat. How did Yadav manage to do it? While that remains a mystery and is sure to come under scrutiny, Yadav texted Gupta, according to the indictment, that Yadav had “spoke (n) with the boss about your Gujarat (case)” that it was “all clear” and “nobody will ever bother you again.” Yadav arranged for an initial down payment for the killing in New York city, which is where the money laundering charges come in.

That Vikas and Gupta “and others known and unknown” transported, transmitted, transferred, “a monetary instrument and funds from a place in the United States to and through a place outside United States” for the purpose of paying the hitman. The down payment was $15,000. The total sum agreed for the hit job: “We are ready to pay $150000...The offer will go higher depending on the quality of work…And if it is done as soon as possible”, referring to the murder. Who did Yadav report to, and how did he have access to so much money on a government salary?

It is surmisable that Yadav must have been in contact with others and that the Americans are well aware of that, given that they were on to him from the start. The question is: when will those chicken come to roost? A lot would depend on how much the interests of the Department of Justice which is pursuing the criminal matter and that of the State Department, which has a broader overview of ties with India, coincide. That and who comes to occupy the White House after the elections.