The man likely to become Germany’s next chancellor is an enigma. To some, Friedrich Merz is a populist provocateur; others see him as a staunch conservative or a shrewd economist. If his party, the conservative CDU/CSU, wins the German elections on Feb. 23, he’ll have to rise above these labels and project effective statesmanship fast.Nobody can be expected to fix Germany’s problems overnight, but with the far-right snapping at their heels, centrists may only have one more chance to shake Germany out of its malaise. The question is: Has Merz got what it takes?He should certainly be able to hit the ground running. His party has been leading the polls for the last three years and might get twice as many votes as the incumbent Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s center-left SPD. Merz is such a firm favorite to win that some media outlets have taken to calling him Germany’s “chancellor-in-waiting.”Don’t mistake that solid lead for enthusiasm, though. Polls are giving the conservatives a seemingly immovable vote share of around 30%, which would be the second worst in the party’s history (the worst being 24% in 2021). That is despite the fact that Scholz has had shockingly bad approval ratings. Opposition leader Merz is cruising when he should be soaring.It’s not immediately obvious what’s holding him back. He may be the oldest chancellor candidate on offer, but “his energetic campaign performances belie his 69 years,” as journalists of the Economist mused when they interviewed him last week. He also seems in a good position to address two of the hot-button issues of this election: the stagnant economy and immigration.A multimillionaire, Merz accumulated more wealth as a corporate lawyer than Germans are used to with their chancellors. He’s held lucrative positions on numerous corporate boards, most notably as chairman of the German arm of the American investment company BlackRock Inc. While some have wondered if flying around in his private plane (Merz has a pilot’s license) might make him seem too aloof, polls suggest that Merz is regarded as the most economically literate candidate.But German angst sits deep on this issue. As their country enters what might be its third year of recession in a row, Germans have never been so downcast. In a recent survey, only a quarter of people judged the economic situation to be good, and even fewer believed Germany was on the right trajectory. “The business model of this country is gone,” admits Merz, who offers voters a drastic reduction of taxes, bureaucracy and welfare spending. It will take infectious optimism and a lot of credibility to halt the exodus of German businesses and convince voters that brighter days are ahead.On immigration, the challenge is also to prove early that he is willing to tackle this complex and sensitive issue. His intention to do so appears credible. As former chancellor Angela Merkel’s inner-party rival, he was openly critical of her policy to open the borders in 2015 to more than 1 million migrants, arguing this should have remained a “one-time exception.”Now Germany has more than 3.5 million people who came as refugees — that’s 4% of the population.In a risky move to convince voters that he’s willing to reduce irregular migration to Germany, Merz attempted and failed last month to get tougher legislation passed in parliament. He knew the buoyant anti-immigration AfD party would vote with him, which is considered a taboo among Germany’s mainstream parties due to the country’s Nazi past.Surveys taken since indicate that the move hasn’t done Merz any harm despite triggering outrage from opponents and large street protests. But crucially, they also didn’t boost his prospects, despite the fact that polls showed around two-thirds of people agreed with the measures he’d suggested such as permanent border controls.It appears Merz can do or say what he likes at the moment, and the polls stay frozen. The fundamental problem is that many Germans have lost faith in the system itself. For years, surveys have shown that the vast majority of voters don’t trust political parties anymore, but what’s new is that this is spreading to the middle classes — the bedrock of the CDU/CSU. Centrists appear unable to “give an impression of empathy, competence and openness,” as one of the pollsters put it.Merz has been a familiar face of this system that people have lost faith in. He was a 17-year-old school boy when he first joined the CDU in 1972. Fiercely ambitious and competitive, he aimed for the leadership of the party in the early 2000s, but Angela Merkel beat him to it. The two became arch rivals, and Merz left politics between 2009 and 2018 to pursue his private-sector career. Upon his return, he lost out twice more against Merkel proteges Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer and Armin Laschet, in 2018 and 2021 respectively. Neither were successful, leaving Merz to finally fulfil his ambition of becoming chairman of the CDU in 2022 and its chancellor candidate in 2024.The membership appears to stand solidly behind him, and the polls have recovered a bit since the post-Merkel slump. But the story of being the perpetual second choice isn’t an attractive one. Changing that narrative won’t be easy. For one thing, Merz can’t do it alone. Given the “firewall” against the AfD, he’ll have to form a coalition with one or even two of the current ruling parties, which may appear as a mere rejig of the status quo to disgruntled voters. Convincing them otherwise will be tough, but the stakes couldn’t be higher.The AfD is set to double its vote share compared with 2021. At this trajectory, it’s no longer unthinkable that it has the potential to become the strongest party in just a few years. If Merz becomes the next German chancellor, there won’t be much time. He’ll have to find a way to set effective reforms in motion and communicate them well if he is to inject Germany with some much-needed optimism, halt its economic decline and take the wind out of the populists’ sails.Nobody knows if he is up to these enormous challenges. Merz has never held a ministerial post and honed his skills only in opposition — whether to other parties or within his own. But, for better or worse, it will likely fall to him to show his country a way out of the gloom. Germany can only hope that this is a cometh the hour, cometh the man moment.