NO-ONE has a crystal ball, so all projections into the future tend to be extrapolations from the recent past. Unfortunately, that would mean 2025 threatens even more war, too little action on climate change, growing poverty and widespread political turmoil.

The main new factor in the world is the election of Donald Trump as US president. His inauguration is in just a few days’ time. But we should remember that the terrors of 2024 did not begin under Trump — he had almost nothing to do with them.

It was the Democrat President Joe Biden who gave the green light to Israeli genocide and who provided both the money and arms for it, along with the wider attack on the region, including the West Bank, Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Iran and Yemen.

Without ever formally declaring it, Israel’s backers are at war with an entire region. Some, like the US and Britain, are themselves active participants in the war. “We can’t necessarily tell the world what you’re doing here,” as Keir Starmer told RAF personnel in Cyprus.

It was also Biden who massively stepped up the war in Ukraine, seemingly unwilling to accept the inevitable outcome of peace talks and separation of the country into its components.

It was Biden too who slapped more sanctions on other countries than ever, who deported a record number of people from the US, who granted a record number of licences to drill oil. It was Biden’s inflation that meant he presided over the largest fall in living standards since the Great Depression, which made the election of any Democrat presidential candidate almost impossible.

The point is, there is bipartisan support for this agenda among almost all political US representatives.

Trump is cast as the great disruptor. But it is delusional to believe he is an isolationist. Trump’s own first term is evidence of that; the debacle of exiting Afghanistan was simply recognising the impossibility of US victory and pacification.

As a candidate he called on Israel to “finish the job,” and as president-elect, he has already threatened Mexico, Canada, Panama, Venezuela and Greenland. His new consigliere Elon Musk openly backs the far-right AfD in Germany and there is talk of doing the same here for Reform UK.

The outcome of the German federal elections one month after the Trump inauguration might be cast as the first test of international “Maga” politics. Any advances for the AfD will certainly be claimed as a win for Trumpism. The AfD is unlikely to be accepted as part of any new government. But its politics of racism, austerity and militarism are winning, dragging the CDU/CSU and the SPD behind it.

Trump may be enough of a realist to accept that a US-Nato victory in Ukraine now seems impossible. But there is no guarantee he would not redirect resources towards other targets, real or imagined. The US arms manufacturers have enjoyed a bonanza under Biden; Trump is never going to slow down the federal gravy train for large corporations and US stockholders.

That much was clear in the short-lived risk of US federal government shutdown over the Budget. Bipartisanship meant the congressional Democrats and Republicans readily agreed a Budget which was great for the fossil fuel companies and the arms manufacturers.

But the uninaugurated Trump and the unelected Musk objected to the existence of the usual federal debt ceiling. They eventually backed down, causing rifts within the Maga camp, but it was clear that the Trump-Musk presidency wanted an unlimited gravy train for corporate America, and that subsidies for businesses (including their own) will reach unprecedented proportions under them.

As a result, everyone will have to be on their guard, foes and allies. We all seem certain to have new tariffs and sanctions, whether we have a “special relationship” or whether it is China. The main effect will be to raise the price of goods for US consumers and businesses, just as it was when Trump imposed them during his first term. But renewed global inflation is a risk.

Yet the US of 2025 and beyond is not the US of 2017, or still less 2000. Over that longer period, the US has decisively lost its leadership in global manufacturing. Then, one-quarter of all the world’s manufactured goods were made in the US, and now less than one-sixth are. China’s share of global manufacturing outputs has soared to just under a third of the total.

Trump believes sanctions and tariffs are a gun held to the world’s head. Really, they are aimed at the US’s foot.

Others have pointed out Trump wants to “re-shore” manufacturing via a cheap dollar, but he is also a frequent advocate of a strong dollar, which is generally the preferred stance of Wall Street. Tariffs will also raise prices, adding to domestic price pressures, which have never been fully tamed since they were first unleashed at the end of his first term.

At the same time, higher prices and sharply increased federal spending are a recipe for much higher government and other borrowing rates. Weakness in the British economy means we are very vulnerable to a global flight from bonds.

Ultimately, Trump may be able to disrupt the economy. He may attack living standards by pushing prices higher. This is what his admirer Javier Milei is doing in Argentina. Or he may directly attack unions and pay as Ronald Reagan did.

But he is not able to alter its fundamental trend towards slowdown. Trump promised a return to 4 per cent GDP growth. In the three years before the pandemic, his presidency delivered an average of 2.65 per cent.

This is not a favourable scenario for the rest of the world. The common view in Washington is that the US must reassert its dominance globally and that the mechanism for this is the military one.

Everyone will be worse off. In first place will be the US’s military targets, with Iran seemingly next in the widening offensive in the region. The US’s near neighbours, including Cuba, Venezuela, and now even Panama, all have serious cause for concern. China is regarded by many as the ultimate target, if the US is to reassert global dominance.

But allies also have major concerns, and not just from Maga political interference. There is also the question of Trump’s demand for 5 per cent of GDP to be spent on the military. This could only come at the expense of desperately needed public spending, especially since we have already moved back into austerity. In 2025 Trump will disrupt politics in many countries, not just the US.

Diane Abbott is Labour MP for Hackney North and Stoke Newington. Follow her on X @HackneyAbbott.