Donald Trump has dominated the whole conversation around Ukraine and Russia over the last fortnight.
While his ambition to end the three-year conflict quickly was well-known before his inauguration, the US president has moved with shocking speed, unafraid to shatter diplomatic relations in the process.
He called up accused war criminal and well-known aggressor Vladimir Putin for a “friendly” chat last week, arranged early peace talks with Russia and did not invite Ukraine to the table, falsely called Volodymyr Zelenskyy a “dictator” and then inaccurately blamed Kyiv for starting the war.
Trump’s top team has suggested Ukraine may have to cede its occupied territory to Russia, renounce its Nato ambitions, and even agree to give the US $500bn worth of rare minerals as “payback” for its military support.
But how much of this should be seen as typical outrage from a US president known for courting attention – and “disinformation”?
As western officials tell HuffPost UK to look beyond Trump’s inflammatory language, here’s a look at the pressing issues PM Keir Starmer will be looking into ahead of his trip to Washington DC next week.
The US president told reporters this week: “I think the Russians want to see the war end, I really do. But I think they have the cards a little bit, because they’ve taken a lot of territory. So they have the cards.”
But Putin is weaker than he may seem. His bid to bolster his ranks with North Korean troops has not worked out so far, due to language barriers and a general lack of organisation among the Russian forces, resulting in a high casualty rate for Pyongyang.
The Kremlin has reportedly resorted to threatening troops mobilised in 2022 with “the meat grinder” unless they sign up to longer contracts, according to ministry of defence.
More than 10% of Russia’s oil revenues have been affected by the sanctions from the US and the UK, according to officials, meaning Putin is having to sell the oil at a sigificant discount as a result of these measures.
The Russian economy is faltering, too. The Atlantic Council predicted last month that a recession would hit the country this year, as sanctions finally take effect.
Putin himself also admitted that the economy is “overheating” in December and that inflation is increasing.
As the Atlantic Council noted: “The fact that he felt the need to acknowledge inflation as a serious issue suggests that something greater is afoot.”
The think tank also pointed to the labour shortage caused by Putin’s push on the frontline, while he has spent tens of billions of dollars on defence equipment and weapons.
This has impoverished Russians, as government pumps focuses all of its money on one department.
As UK defence secretary John Healey said, Putin only “holds the cards in the sense that he could end the war if he withdrew his troops”.
But, despite these problems weighing Putin down, Trump has just given him a lifeline by bringing him back onto the world stage.
The US president has upended three years of western diplomacy by expressing his sympathies with Putin over Nato, and falsely accusing Ukraine of starting the war.
According to the Financial Times, US officials have now even refused to a G7 statement condemning “Russian aggression”.
But western officials told HuffPost UK this week that Trump’s remarks are “comparable to waves on the surface of the sea”.
They claimed the focus should really be on the underlying ocean currents.
They noted that, despite Trump’s ongoing threats to leave Nato unless member states increase their spending to 5% of GDP, the US is still part of the defence alliance.
Other insiders also explained that the end of the Biden administration pumped enough money into Kyiv, and has sustained Ukraine all the way into the summer.
One official pointed out that the Ukraine war shifted significantly in 2024 because Ukrainians were able to take the fight to Russia after they occupied the Russian land of Kursk.
But, there’s no getting away from just how much Ukraine relies on investment from the US just to keep fighting.
Insiders told HuffPost UK that the ammunition coming from the US may only make up 20% of Ukraine’s total military hardware right now – but that is the cream of the crop.
Still, Starmer has already signalled Europe will step up after the States said the continent needs to be more responsible for its own security.
He has promised to be a “bridge” between Europe and Trump’s administration. However, it’s not clear how much the continent could actually do without the US.
Starmer’s plan of introducing peacekeeping troops to Ukraine – once a US-Russia deal has been agreed to – has already been met with hostility from some European allies.
While French president Emmanuel Macron was on board, German chancellor Olaf Scholz said it was “inappropriate” to discuss sending troops in before a proper peace plan was in place, and Polish prime minister Donald Tusk also ruled out sending any troops to Ukraine.
In fact, culture secretary Lisa Nandy told Sky News this week that the prime minister had been holding phone calls to make sure the European alliance “does not fracture”.
It may also not be feasible to deploy British peacekeeping troops anytime soon because of underfunding in the UK’s defence department.
Paul Johnson, director at the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), told PoliticsHome there was “no space” for the government to offer a quick financial boost.
That means it could mean cuts on some departments, or there’s “a good chance we’ll have more tax rises”, he said.
Western officials also downplayed the impact such troops could have on their own, noting that they would be reliant on the “US backstop” Starmer has proposed.
The backstop would give any deployed Europeans “the confidence” that Russia would not attack, according to western officials.
They noted it would be “rather odd” to send soldiers in if the UK thought would pull the West into conflict with Russia after years of trying to avoid such confrontation.
This UK “reassurance force” would only involve less than 30,000 troops, despite Zelenskyy’s calls for a deterrence made up of 100,000 to 150,000 personnel.
While Trump is pushing for a rapid end to the war, and hopes to secure a peace by April, officials have suggested there does not need to be such a rush.
A lot of kit was transported to Ukraine before Joe Biden left the White House and before the funding approval came to an end.
This will allegedly last Ukraine “well beyond” some of the time frames being thrown around in terms of ceasefire negotiations.
But, there’s no doubt that tensions are rising – US envoy Keith Kellogg even cancelled a press conference with Zelenskyy on Thursday – which could make the next few months particularly uncertain.
And, asked if the UK could trust the US still had Europe’s best interests at heart, defence secretary Healey did not say yes.
He told reporters: “Europe’s best security interests and America’s best security interests are satisfied by an end to this war in Ukraine and by a strong, unified NATO.
“That’s an argument that we are having and have discussed with the Americans and will continue to make.”
Only time will tell whether Trump will actually listen.