Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as Trump delays tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and China hits back with its own sanctions

• China announces retaliatory tariffs moments after US levies take effect – live

The 10% US tariff on all imports from China that kicked in today is not a “game changer” for China’s growth forecasts, says European bank ABN Amro.

They predict Beijing will respond with “a further stepping up of monetary easing and fiscal support” – meaning interest rate cuts and more government spending.

Although the first tariff implementation now seems to have come even earlier than anticipated in our Global Outlook, The Year of the Tariff, in our base case we already anticipate a material (gradual) stepping up of US import tariffs on China to an average effective tariff rate of 45% per Q2-2026.

While talks between Trump and Xi may potentially smoothen the risk of a further escalation for now, Trump stated earlier this week that he sees the 10% tariffs as a first salvo, with tariffs on China potentially moving much higher if no agreement is reached.

“Although we will continue to monitor trade policy closely, our base case remains for the S&P 500 to rise to 6,600 by year-end.

If implemented, tariffs on Canada and Mexico are unlikely to be sustained, resilient US economic growth should support stocks, and we continue to believe that AI presents a powerful structural tailwind for earnings and equity markets.