Reform has surged in the polls, panicking both Labour and the Conservatives. It’s a trap, and the risks are high

Nigel Farage is making trouble again. Reform, his latest political vehicle, has surged in the polls, moving into first place with some pollsters, and ruffling feathers on Labour back benches.

While Farage has caused headaches for every prime minister since David Cameron, his recent rise is something new. Reform scored an average of almost 25% in January polls, past the peaks achieved by Ukip or the Brexit party in earlier parliaments. And while past Farage surges were spikes driven by circumstances – European parliament elections, the EU referendum, the collapse of Theresa May’s ­government – the current rise is more sustained. This Farage boom is no bubble.