Successful PMs learn on the job, and Labour’s leader needs to start 2025 by showing his party and the country he has done so

The dismissive verdicts and dire polls after Keir Starmer’s first few months in power should not unduly perturb him. Britain’s best prime ministers all faced considerable challenges, especially early on. Clement Attlee may rank as Labour’s most outstanding leader, but his position was far from secure at the time and he would have been ousted early but for the loyal support of the foreign secretary, Ernest Bevin. Margaret Thatcher endured many dark weeks and months, only feeling confident of her position after victory in the Falklands war, three years into her premiership. The end of year verdicts on Starmer’s premiership have highlighted his errors and the bad economic news, but they have precious little positive to offer beyond “he must find a narrative”.

Steady on, though. Starmer believes he has a narrative, a very clear one that he has internalised in his head – which is that as Labour leader from 2020, he took a series of unpopular decisions and faced endless criticism, but he prevailed and won one of the biggest majorities in history. On the same basis, he thinks that tough medicine from him now will see the party rewarded with another handsome majority in 2028 or 2029. It’s neat. It’s compelling. But it’s a fantasy – and a dangerous misunderstanding of the kind of narrative a PM needs. If Starmer continues to hold to it he will fall, and Britain will notch up another failed premiership when what it needs most is competent government.

Anthony Seldon’s Starmer at 10 will be published after he leaves No 10; he is the author of The Impossible Office? The History of the British Prime Minister