Ex-president joined at rally by Elon Musk, JD Vance and family of Corey Comperatore, who was killed when gunman fired at Trump

As the Trump and Harris campaigns host events across the country today – now one month before the 5 November election – the Guardian US is averaging national and state polls to see how the two candidates are faring. We will update our averages once a week, or more if there is major news.

As the Guardian’s Sam Levine writes today:

With her highest national polling average since July, Harris is now leading in five of seven key swing states. Nationally, the Guardian’s tracker shows Harris with 49.3% of the vote, compared with 46% for Trump. The election is a month away, and already an estimated 1.4 million Americans have voted as of midday on Friday.

The race is still extremely close. The simplest path to collecting the 270 electoral votes needed to win is still the blue wall of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. While Harris leads Trump in all three according to the Guardian’s analysis (Pennsylvania by 1.2 points, Michigan by 0.1 points and Wisconsin by 2.2 points), those advantages are quite slim.