Harris’s standing is weakest in Arizona, where NYT/Siena poll shows her trailing Trump by five points less than 45 days from election day

Good morning, US politics blog readers. Broadly speaking, there are two groups of swing states expected to decide the presidential election: the Great Lakes states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, and the Sun belt states of Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina. The closely watched pollsters at the New York Times and Siena College today released new data from three of the latter group, showing Donald Trump preferred by voters over Kamala Harris, albeit to varying degrees. The poll finds the vice-president’s standing is weakest against Trump in Arizona, where she now has a five-point polling deficit after the same pollsters showed her with a five-point lead last month. The race in Georgia is tighter but the tightest state is North Carolina, which has not supported a Democratic candidate for president since 2008.

The survey is the latest sign of the the presidential race remaining in toss up territory two months after Harris took over as the Democratic candidate from Joe Biden. The Times and Siena College poll is just one data point among many others, but if its findings bear out, it would leave the vice-president reliant on the Great Lakes states as well as Nevada, the fourth Sun belt state that was not surveyed, or a single Nebraska congressional district to win the White House.

The government appears to have dodged the threat of another shutdown, after congressional leaders reached a spending agreement that expires on 20 December, defying Trump’s demands that they also approve legislation to require voters to prove their citizenship when registering.

Biden honors women’s soccer champions Gotham F.C. at 10.30am ET, then meets with president Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan of the United Arab Emirates at 12.20pm before heading to New York City for the UN general assembly.

Israel has launched a volley of airstrikes at Lebanon today, again raising fears of a regional conflict. You can read out live blog all about it here.

JD Vance is delivering remarks in Charlotte, North Carolina at 5pm.

Trump will hold a rally in Indiana, Pennsylvania at 7pm.