In all similar democracies, left and right are having versions of the same argument: does ‘electable’ mean centrist or radical?

As the German election results land, a lot of people are looking on the bright side: nearly 80% of Germans won’t entertain voting for Alternative für Deutschland (AfD). A nanosecond ago, however – as recently as Saturday – the idea that voters might go this far-right, in these kinds of numbers, for the first time since the second world war was terrifying. Some are calling this a victory over Donald Trump and Elon Musk, who vocally supported the AfD; others are calling it a victory for them.

Nobody is puzzling much over the decline in support for Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic party – down 9%, almost equal to the AfD’s gains, although the numbers on switchers have yet to be crunched – because it was so long expected. The CDU/CSU alliance has won, with 28.5%, pretty much as the polls predicted. It’s an incredibly German story in its labyrinthine and laborious coalition possibilities, but it’s also a common story these days: the two main parties hand power to one another in a kind of disillusionment relay; the populist right gets a dispiritingly good show; the populist or eco left is less populist, less popular, and can pick a fight with itself in a paper bag, so it looks even smaller than it is.