Events in Vienna are forcing Germany’s bickering mainstream parties to rally together. But the AfD could yet outflank the centre

Could Germany go the way of Austria? Could the party of the far right be invited to form a government? What was previously deemed impossible, then revised down to improbable, is now possible. There are two scenarios in which this could happen.

Fast forward to Germany’s general election day on 23 February and the following assumptions: Germany’s Christian Democrats (CDU) win, reasonably comfortably, at around their present poll rating of 30%. The far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) comes second, with an impressive vote share of between 20% and 25%. Nevertheless, it is excluded from coalition negotiations thanks to the “firewall” established several years ago by the mainstream parties to keep extreme groupings at bay.