An oil price shock and economic downturn are among the likely effects of an attack on Iran’s exporting capacity

When Joe Biden last week said that his administration has been “discussing” possible Israeli plans to attack Iran’s oil industry in retaliation for Iran’s ballistic missile attack, it left the world stunned. Notably because Mr Biden didn’t reject these plans outright, in the way that he had the day before regarding a possible strike on Iran’s nuclear sites. Oil prices jumped 10%, even though the US president walked back the remark the next day.

The historian AJP Taylor wrote that “wars are much like road accidents” in that they had profound consequences but did not necessarily have equally profound causes. Targeted Israeli strikes on refinery complexes may not do much more than win domestic applause. Bombing Kharg Island, the heart of Iran’s oil-export operations, would cripple its economy. However, such a move might also drive up global oil prices and have an impact on American consumers just weeks before a crucial election.