Concern for the Democrats’ political future appears to be driving the White House’s policy of containment

The Middle East crisis has reached an extremely dangerous juncture. That’s a statement made many times since the Hamas terrorist attacks on Israel on 7 October last year precipitated a descent into war. Yet it is precisely because nearly 12 months of international diplomacy, on-off ceasefire and hostage negotiations, protests, sanctions threats, lawsuits and political and moral pressure on the warring parties have failed to halt the slaughter in Gaza and elsewhere that this moment is especially fraught. With no end in sight, no obvious way out, no credible “peace process”, unchecked escalation grows more likely. Fear, anger, political opportunism and sheer desperation overwhelm calm, objective thinking about actions and consequences. The dogs of war run free.

Last week’s decision by Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, and his war cabinet to open a “new phase” in the conflict by targeting Hezbollah’s rank-and-file in Lebanon accelerated what looks like an inexorable slide into region-wide conflict. It is evident, with hindsight, that the booby-trapping of operatives’ pagers and walkie-talkies was planned long in advance. Hidden explosives could have been detonated at any time. So why now? Because, having failed in his stated aim of destroying Hamas in Gaza, over the bodies of more than 40,000 mostly civilian Palestinian dead, Israel’s leader chose to make Lebanon the new front in a war without end.